Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH)

Summary
• The pair declined by 1.14% within 24 hours, closing below the 43.80 level.
• Volume spiked to 2,505 Hryvnia at 17:45 ET-1, but no strong follow-through was observed.
• A bearish divergence in price and turnover was noted in the late hours of 11/10.
• A 43.76 support level was tested at midnight and held briefly before further losses.
• 43.70 now emerges as the next key area of interest for bearish momentum.

Opening Narrative

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 43.84 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 43.90 before closing at 43.76 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11. The 24-hour trading session recorded a total volume of 12,658 Hryvnia and a notional turnover of approximately 551,360 Hryvnia, indicating moderate liquidity but mixed investor sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed bearish exhaustion in the last 10 hours of the 24-hour window, marked by a succession of lower closes and long lower wicks. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 43.90 during the 20:00–20:15 ET session, followed by a confirmation candle at 43.85. A doji formed at 43.76 at 00:00–00:15 ET, suggesting indecision at key support.

Moving Averages

Short-term averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart show a descending trend, reinforcing bearish bias. The 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period MA in the early hours of 11/11, signaling a possible medium-term bearish shift. The 200-period MA remains above price, indicating long-term stability.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line at 22:30 ET, with a bearish histogram developing afterward. RSI has entered oversold territory (below 30) during the final hours of the 24-hour window, suggesting potential for a bounce. However, the divergence between RSI and price action suggests bearish momentum may not yet have fully played out.

Bollinger Bands

Price remained within the Bollinger Bands for most of the session but tested the lower band at 43.76 during the overnight hours. A contraction in volatility was observed from 18:00–20:00 ET, followed by a modest expansion. The current position near the lower band aligns with a potential bounce or a breakdown into a new range.

Volume & Turnover

Notable volume spikes were recorded at 17:45 ET (2,505 Hryvnia) and 21:00–21:15 ET (855 Hryvnia), but price failed to react positively post-breakout. Turnover declined in the final two hours, indicating a lack of conviction among buyers. Divergence in volume and price during the 01:00–03:00 ET period suggests fading bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 43.79 was tested and broken in the early morning, confirming bearish bias. The 38.2% level at 43.83 acted as temporary resistance in the evening. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement near 43.66 appears as a key support level to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed MACD bearish crossover and RSI divergence, a backtesting hypothesis could be constructed: if the MACD line crosses below the signal line on a 15-minute chart and RSI falls below 30, a sell entry could be triggered with a stop-loss placed just above the next Fibonacci level. This strategy would need to be tested using a consistent ticker symbol for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) to ensure historical data alignment. The provided dataset shows this event occurring at 22:30 ET, making it a potential candidate for a backtesting entry point.