Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH)

• Price rose from 43.12 at 12:00 ET-1 to a high of 43.8, closing at 43.59 with a 24-hour range of 43.08–43.8.
• Strong positive momentum seen in final hours with a sharp upward move of over 60 Hryvnia.
• Volume increased significantly during the late afternoon and early evening trading session.
• Price remains above key 43.20 level, suggesting continued bullish sentiment.
• Bollinger Bands show expanding volatility, with price near the upper band in final candle.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) displayed a clear bullish breakout above the 43.20 level after a period of consolidation. This level had served as a key resistance, and the successful break above it was confirmed with strong follow-through buying. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged between 15:45 and 16:00 ET, with the candle closing near the upper band at 43.8, indicating strong buyer momentum. A doji was observed around 04:30 ET, signaling a brief period of indecision. However, this was followed by a strong upward continuation, reinforcing the bullish bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained in an upward trajectory, with the 20-period line crossing above the 50-period line in a "golden cross" formation earlier in the session. This suggests short-term bullish momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages both remain below current price levels, reinforcing the medium-term bullish trend. The 200-period moving average, which often acts as a psychological anchor, was not tested during the session, as the price remained well above it.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a strong upward surge in the final hours of the session, particularly between 14:30 and 16:00 ET, confirming the bullish breakout and reinforcing the strength of the move. The signal line closely followed the MACD, indicating no divergence and a continuation of the trend. The RSI indicator moved into overbought territory during the final 2 hours, peaking near 70, suggesting that the move may be exhausting. However, as long as the RSI remains above 50, the bullish momentum remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly throughout the session, with the Bollinger Bands widening in response to the strong price movement. The upper band acted as a dynamic resistance level, with price frequently testing this boundary in the final hours. A strong move above the upper band was observed in the 15:45–16:00 candle, closing near the top of the band at 43.8. This suggests a continuation of the bullish trend. The lower band remained untouched for most of the session, reinforcing the lack of bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the late afternoon and evening hours, with the highest trading volume recorded in the 15:45–16:00 candle at 3475.0, coinciding with the strongest price move of the session. This suggests strong conviction among buyers. Turnover also spiked during this time, confirming the volume increase. A divergence was observed in the early hours of the session, where volume declined despite continued upward price movement, suggesting a period of consolidation. However, this was followed by a surge in volume and price, confirming the bullish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the most recent swing (from 43.08 to 43.8), the 61.8% level is at approximately 43.59, where the price closed for the 24-hour period. This level could act as a key support/resistance in the near term. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the prior major move was tested earlier this week and held, suggesting that buyers remain in control. The 38.2% retracement level is at 43.49, which also saw strong volume and price action during the session, suggesting a potential area of interest for traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the robustness of the recent bullish move, a backtesting strategy could be applied that tracks price breakouts above key resistance levels, as observed in the 43.20 area. By identifying past instances where Tether/Hryvnia broke above a prior N-day high (e.g., 30 days), we can assess the performance of such breakout events over a historical period. Key metrics to analyze would include average returns, win rate (hit ratio), optimal holding periods, and drawdowns. Given the current strong volume and price confirmation, this could be a favorable setup for a breakout strategy. However, given the recent overbought RSI reading, it would also be prudent to include trailing stops or profit-taking levels to manage risk.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

Looking ahead, the market appears to remain bullish, with strong support above 43.49 and resistance at the 43.8 level. Traders may look for a retest of these levels for confirmation. However, the overbought RSI suggests caution, as a pullback could occur if buyers fail to continue pushing higher. A drop below 43.49 could trigger a short-term correction. Investors should remain watchful for divergence in the next 24 hours and consider implementing stop-loss orders to manage downside risk.