Market Overview: Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) - 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-09-18

• Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 42.74 and closed at 42.63, with a high of 42.84 and low of 42.48.
• Price consolidated around 42.65–42.66 as a potential support/resistance pivot.
• Volume surged during late-night hours, aligning with a sharp pullback in price.
• RSI hovered around 50–60, suggesting a neutral to mildly bullish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility expansion during price decline.

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 42.74 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET and closed at 42.63 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The 24-hour range extended from a high of 42.84 to a low of 42.48, with a total trading volume of 159,347.0 Hryvnia and a notional turnover of $3,877.61 (calculated using mid-values). The price action reflects a bearish tilt in the final hours, with key support levels showing mixed resilience.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern around the 42.83–42.66 range during the early morning hours, signaling a potential reversal in sentiment. A 42.65–42.66 zone acted as a temporary support, with a couple of bullish hammers forming there. However, a breakdown below 42.65 confirmed a bearish continuation. Key resistance levels to watch on a rebound include 42.74 (early morning pivot) and 42.83 (previous high).

Moving Averages

Short-term 15-minute moving averages show a bearish crossover with the 50-period line crossing below the 20-period line late into the evening, aligning with the sell-off. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) remain in a mixed configuration, with the 50-period line hovering near 42.70—suggesting a possible near-term resistance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative during the overnight sell-off, confirming the bearish momentum. RSI remained in the 50–60 range during most of the day, indicating a neutral to mildly bullish bias. However, it dipped below 50 as the price declined, reinforcing the bearish signal. There were no clear overbought or oversold conditions, but the divergence between price and RSI in the early hours hinted at a potential correction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the price pullback, with the closing candle at 42.63 sitting below the lower band, suggesting a period of heightened volatility and bearish exhaustion. A potential rebound could see price retesting the 42.74–42.81 range within the bands, but a sustained close below 42.60 would increase the likelihood of further downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the overnight session, particularly between 03:15 ET and 08:30 ET, when the price dropped from 42.8 to 42.53. This volume confirmed the bearish move rather than indicating a divergence. The high turnover during this period aligns with strong selling pressure and suggests a lack of immediate support below 42.60.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the most recent 15-minute swing from 42.48 to 42.84, the 61.8% retrace level is at 42.63—where price closed. This implies the current level is a critical area for near-term direction. A break below this would suggest a possible target at 42.58 (38.2% level of the prior bullish move). On a reversal, 42.76–42.81 could offer resistance based on daily Fibonacci projections.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy provided focuses on short-term volatility spikes and divergences in RSI and volume to identify potential reversals. Given the observed bearish engulfing pattern and volume confirmation, the strategy would likely have triggered a short signal around the 42.83–42.66 range. A stop-loss placed above 42.84 would have limited risk, while a target at 42.58 aligns with the Fibonacci projection. While this strategy would have profited from the overnight sell-off, further refinement may be needed to filter out false signals in low-liquidity conditions.