Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) – 2025-11-01

• Price declined from 43.57 to 43.28 during the 24-hour period, showing bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded as the range widened to 0.29 UAH, indicating increased trading interest.
• A doji star pattern formed near 43.47, signaling possible reversal or consolidation.
• RSI approached oversold territory near 30, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound.
• Volume surged in the early hours, but price continued lower, indicating possible divergence.

The Tether/Hryvnia pair (USDTUAH) opened at 43.54 UAH on 2025-11-01 and reached a high of 43.70 UAH before falling to a low of 43.28 UAH. The 24-hour period closed at 43.28 UAH with a total traded volume of 39,334.0 UAH and a notional turnover of 1.67 million UAH. Price action shows a bearish bias, with a distinct downward drift after an early morning high and divergence between volume and price.

Price moved within a descending channel, with key resistance levels identified at 43.55 UAH and 43.60 UAH, and support at 43.45 UAH and 43.30 UAH. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 43.49 UAH, followed by a doji star at 43.47 UAH, suggesting temporary indecision. The doji appears at a critical point where buyers may attempt to re-enter the market. However, bearish momentum remains strong as price action continues to test lower levels.

The 20-period moving average (15-minute) crossed below the 50-period line, reinforcing the short-term bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is slowly catching up to the 200-period MA, indicating a potential continuation of the trend. MACD remains negative with a bearish crossover and a narrowing histogram, reflecting weakening momentum. The RSI has dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, although this does not guarantee an immediate reversal, especially in a strong trend environment.

Bollinger Bands show an expansion in volatility, with the price hovering near the lower band for much of the day. This may indicate an accumulation phase at lower levels or a potential setup for a rebound. The upper band is currently at 43.65 UAH, while the lower band sits at 43.20 UAH. Volume activity showed a peak of 8,539 UAH at 00:15 ET, but no significant follow-through occurred. Divergence between price and volume remains a point of caution for further downside.

The Fibonacci retracement levels for the 15-minute chart indicate that the 61.8% retracement level is at 43.44 UAH, which aligns with the doji star pattern. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the larger move is at 43.35 UAH, which now acts as a potential support area. These levels could be key in determining whether the bearish move continues or a short-term bounce occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest based on the observed doji star pattern at 43.47 UAH could provide insight into potential reversal setups. A possible strategy would be to open a long position at the open of the next candle after the doji confirms a reversal (e.g., a bullish follow-through). Exit could be triggered on a price close above the high of the doji pattern or a breakout of the recent swing high. Using the 50-period moving average as a filter, only trades entering above the 50 MA would be considered. A stop-loss at 43.30 UAH and a target at 43.60 UAH could be used to manage risk. Testing this hypothesis from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-01 would allow for a comprehensive assessment of its viability in a trending environment. This would align with the technical indicators suggesting a potential bottoming process.