Market Overview: Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) on 2025-10-04

• Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) closed lower after a 24-hour range-bound pattern, with a slight bearish bias in the final hours.
• Momentum indicators signal moderate bearish pressure, with RSI dipping toward oversold territory in the late session.
• Volatility remained constrained, with low volume suggesting a lack of conviction in price movement.
• No decisive reversal patterns emerged, though a potential support level formed near 42.24-42.26.
• Turnover remained steady with no major divergences between price and volume, suggesting a consolidation phase.

The Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) pair opened at 42.28 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 42.31, and closed at 42.27 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The price remained in a tight range throughout the session, hovering between 42.24 and 42.31. Total trading volume for the 24-hour window amounted to 91,108.0, with a notional turnover of approximately 3,841,295.90 UAH.

Structure and formations show a consolidation pattern with no clear breakout. The price found support near 42.24–42.26 and resistance at 42.30–42.31. A small bearish engulfing pattern formed in the final hour, hinting at a potential short-term reversal. A doji near 42.28 also signals indecision among traders. These formations suggest the market is waiting for a catalyst to break the range.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are nearly overlapping, indicating a sideways trend. Price has remained between these lines without crossing either, showing no immediate directional bias. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages on the daily chart are not available in this dataset, but the 15-minute data suggests a continuation of the consolidation.

The MACD (12, 26, 9) crossed below the signal line in the final hours, signaling a bearish momentum shift. The RSI, after oscillating between 45 and 55 for most of the session, dipped to around 30 late in the day, indicating oversold conditions. This may hint at a possible short-term bounce, but without confirmation of a breakout from the consolidation range, it’s premature to conclude a reversal. Bollinger Bands remained narrow throughout the session, suggesting low volatility. Price hovered near the lower band during the final two hours, another sign of potential support activity.

Volume remained moderate, averaging between 300–800 per candle, with no major spikes. Turnover was in line with the price range, showing no divergence or surges that might indicate a breakout attempt. The lack of significant volume during the bearish move suggests a lack of conviction and points to a potential continuation of the range-bound phase.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the recent 15-minute swing (42.24 to 42.31) show key levels at 42.27 (61.8%) and 42.29 (38.2%). The current close at 42.27 aligns with the 61.8% level, which could serve as a support/resistance zone in the near term. On the daily timeframe, no major Fibonacci levels are available within this dataset, but the 42.24–42.31 range appears to be a significant consolidation area.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves a trend-following approach that enters long positions when the 20-period EMA crosses above the 50-period EMA (golden cross) and exits when the 20-period EMA crosses below the 50-period EMA (death cross). This strategy is commonly used in higher timeframes but could be adapted for 15-minute consolidations when combined with RSI divergence and volume confirmation.

On 2025-10-04, a golden cross did not occur; instead, the 20 and 50 EMA lines remained closely aligned. A death cross, however, could have triggered a short signal in the final candle if a 1-minute EMA crossover were used, though no such signal was confirmed by volume or reversal patterns. This suggests the strategy may require tighter volatility and volume filters for lower timeframes to avoid false signals during range-bound sessions like today’s.