Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) on 2025-09-27

• USDTUAH broke above 42.87 and surged to 42.89 before consolidating near 42.87, forming a bullish harami in the early morning.
• Volume was unevenly distributed, with higher buying pressure in the 19:00–21:00 ET window and tapering into the early morning.
• RSI suggested overbought conditions late at night, with a pullback near the 50-line in the morning, suggesting potential for a consolidation phase.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility expansion during the rally, but price remained within the upper band, indicating no extreme breakout.
• Fibonacci retracement levels showed a 61.8% level at 42.85, acting as a temporary magnet and support in the morning hours.

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 42.83 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET and traded in a 15-minute interval with a high of 42.91, a low of 42.70, and a close of 42.73 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-27. Total volume reached 49,392.0 units, with a notional turnover of 2,111,393.11 UAH over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart for USDTUAH displayed a strong bearish bias from around 05:15–07:30 ET, with a decisive move from 42.85 down to 42.70. This was followed by a period of consolidation and a minor bullish attempt from 09:00–11:45 ET, which failed to break above 42.80. Notable candlestick patterns included a bearish engulfing pattern on the 05:15–05:30 interval, confirming the bearish momentum, and a harami pattern near 01:00–01:15 ET, which hinted at short-term indecision after a strong rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (42.85) and 50-period MA (42.85) converged around the 42.85 level, where price found temporary support. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 42.87, the 100-period MA at 42.86, and the 200-period MA at 42.84. The price closed below all three, indicating a bearish bias in the intermediate term, though the proximity to the 50-period MA suggests potential for a pullback or consolidation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a bearish crossover late at night and remained negative through the morning, confirming the downtrend. RSI reached an overbought level of 71 at 20:30 ET before retreating below the 50 line by 08:00 ET, indicating waning momentum and a possible bearish continuation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands indicated a moderate widening during the early bearish phase, from 05:30–07:00 ET, with price touching the upper band multiple times before retreating. After the consolidation phase, volatility compressed, with price moving within the bands, showing a period of range trading. Price ended the day near the lower band (42.70), which could provide a psychological floor for near-term support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish breakdown from 05:15–07:30 ET, peaking at 709 units, and remained elevated during the consolidation phase. Notional turnover reached its highest levels during this period, confirming the strength of the move. In contrast, volume and turnover dropped significantly after 08:00 ET, suggesting reduced interest and the potential for a period of consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 42.91–42.70 swing, key levels include 61.8% at 42.80 and 38.2% at 42.84. Price found support at the 61.8% level (42.80) and the 38.2% level (42.84), indicating potential for a continuation of the bearish trend or a short-term bounce from the 42.80–42.84 zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on identifying short-term bearish continuation patterns following a strong move, with the 15-minute RSI and MACD divergence used as confirmation tools. In the case of USDTUAH, the bearish engulfing pattern at 05:15–05:30 ET and the overbought RSI at 71 provide a strong setup for a sell signal. The subsequent bearish crossover in MACD and the volume confirmation in the morning suggest the pattern was valid. A backtest could evaluate entries at the close of the bearish engulfing candle with a stop above the 42.85–42.87 consolidation range and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (42.80), using 15-minute RSI and MACD for exit signals.