Market Overview: Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) on 2025-09-25

• Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) rallied sharply in the final 3 hours, closing above 42.69 after a consolidation phase.
• Momentum strengthened as RSI and MACD turned bullish following a morning range-bound pattern.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the 45-minute candle ending at 12:45 ET, with high volume and a large bullish candle.
• Price remained above 20/50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, suggesting near-term bullish sentiment.
• Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the late surge, indicating increased market participation and potential trend confirmation.

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 42.59 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 42.69 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, reaching a high of 42.90 and a low of 42.61. The 24-hour volume totaled 36,931.00, with a notional turnover of 1,560,606.00 Hryvnia. The pair showed a strong late-day move, especially between 12:15 ET and 12:45 ET.

The price formed a consolidation pattern during early trading, with a key support around 42.61–42.62 and resistance at 42.66–42.67. A large bullish candle on the 45-minute chart confirmed a breakout, with the 15-minute 20-period moving average (42.63) and 50-period MA (42.64) providing dynamic support during the rally. The 50-period MA acted as a base for a bullish continuation.

Structure & Formations

Price displayed a bullish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart at 06:15 ET, followed by a consolidation before a sharp late-day rally. A doji appeared at 12:00 ET, signaling indecision before the final move. Key support levels were held at 42.61–42.62 and 42.59, with resistance levels breaking at 42.67 and 42.69. The 12:45 ET candle was particularly large, indicating strong accumulation.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were slightly bullish, with the 20-MA at 42.63 and the 50-MA at 42.64. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA would be expected to sit below the current close, suggesting the pair is above its intermediate-term trend. A close above 42.71 may strengthen the bullish bias, while a retest of the 42.61 support level could confirm its reliability.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed above the signal line just before the late rally, confirming bullish momentum. The RSI reached 64 at 12:45 ET, suggesting rising strength but not yet overbought. Momentum appears to be building, with the MACD and RSI showing positive divergence as the price retested key levels before breaking out. A continued rise in RSI to above 68 may indicate a potential overbought condition.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the rally, with the close at 42.69 sitting near the upper band. Volatility had been relatively tight earlier in the day but expanded sharply following the breakout. A retest of the upper band may confirm its importance, while a pullback within the bands could indicate a continuation of the trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the final 3 hours, especially in the 12:45 ET candle, where 3,392 units were traded for a turnover of 147,078 Hryvnia. This high volume during an upward move suggests strong buyer participation. Earlier in the morning, volume was relatively light, suggesting a period of consolidation before the breakout. No significant divergence was observed between volume and price action, indicating the rally is supported by increased participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 06:15 ET rally retraced to the 61.8% level at 42.67 before breaking higher. On the daily chart, if the recent decline is considered, the 61.8% retracement would sit near 42.65–42.67, which aligns with the breakout zone. The 42.61–42.62 support area corresponds with the 38.2% level from the morning consolidation, indicating structural significance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposes a long entry on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close above the 15-minute 20-period moving average, with a stop-loss placed below the previous swing low. A take-profit is set at the nearest Fibonacci extension level. Given the recent engulfing pattern at 06:15 ET and confirmation at 09:45 ET, this strategy could have captured the late-day surge. The breakout at 12:45 ET would serve as a trailing trigger, suggesting the strategy is well-suited for capturing continuation moves after consolidations.