Market Overview for Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP): Volatile Drop Closes Near 3950.0

• Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP) opened at 3975.0 and closed near 3950.0 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• Price swung between 3943.0 and 4019.0, with multiple bearish reversals and oversold RSI readings toward the 24-hour close.
• Volume spiked during midday ET, followed by a decline in turnover as momentum shifted lower in the late hours.
• A key resistance cluster around 4010–4020 and strong support near 3945–3955 were evident from candlestick and Fibonacci levels.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate contraction in the early morning, followed by expansion as the pair dropped sharply.

The USDTCOP pair opened at 3975.0 on 2025-10-13 and traded as high as 4019.0 before closing at 3950.0. Total volume amounted to 413,720.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.62 billion. The session featured significant volatility, marked by a sharp decline in the early morning hours and bearish momentum indicators suggesting a possible continuation of the downward trend.

Key support levels formed around 3945.0–3955.0, confirmed by a double bottom and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement from the previous high of 4019.0. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed near 4010.0, followed by a long lower shadow in the early morning session. The 20- and 50-period moving averages were both above the price in the final hours, suggesting a potential bearish crossover. However, the 50-period MA had dipped below the 20-period MA earlier in the session, indicating a weakening bullish trend.

MACD showed bearish divergence in the final hours, with the histogram shrinking on a downtrend. RSI dropped below 30 in the early morning, signaling an oversold condition, though a rebound may not necessarily indicate a reversal. Bollinger Bands had narrowed significantly around midnight before expanding again as volatility picked up. The price closed near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Volume activity was concentrated during midday ET, with a gradual decline as the price dropped. Notional turnover peaked near the 4010.0 level before falling as the pair approached the 3950.0 mark. The divergence between price and volume suggests weakening bearish conviction, which could indicate a possible stabilization or a short-term bounce if buying pressure reemerges.

The 24-hour session appears to have exhausted some short-term bullish momentum, with key support now acting as a floor for potential bounce scenarios. However, the bearish RSI divergence and declining volume raise the risk of a further decline toward the 3930.0–3940.0 range in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a potential backtesting strategy using USDTCOP, an RSI-based approach could be evaluated with a 14-period setting, entering longs on RSI dips below 30 and exits when RSI returns above 30. This aligns with today’s technical behavior, where RSI hit oversold territory in the early morning. The strategy could be further enhanced by incorporating a moving average crossover (20 and 50) to filter out false signals during volatile periods. A 2022–2025 backtest could reveal whether the pair historically bounces from RSI < 30 levels or continues in a downtrend, offering insights for future short-term trading decisions.