Market Overview for Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP): October 11, 2025

• USDTCOP traded with strong volatility, rising from 3847 to 4063 before consolidating.
• Momentum shifted midday with a sharp reversal as RSI approached overbought territory.
• Volume spiked during the 21:45 ET candle, driving a 6.5% jump in price.
• A bearish divergence formed in the final hours as price dipped below 4000 despite rising volume.
• Key support levels at 3930 and 3976 were tested, with mixed reactions observed.

USDTCOP opened at 3847 on October 10, 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 4063 by 10:00 PM ET, and closed at 3996 on October 11, 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading session saw a total volume of 1,124,081.0 units and notional turnover amounting to approximately 448,500,000 COP. The pair exhibited a highly volatile and dynamic pattern across the 24-hour timeframe.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a strong bullish impulse in the late evening hours, capped by a long upper wick at the 21:45 ET candle, indicating rejection of higher prices. A bullish engulfing pattern formed as USDTCOP retested the 4000 level. Conversely, the late morning hours showed a bearish divergence as volume increased while price failed to break above 4000. Key support levels appeared to be 3930 and 3976, both tested during the session with mixed follow-through.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed multiple times, indicating a non-directional, ranging structure with no clear trend. The 50-period line crossed below the 100-period line in the final hours, suggesting a potential bearish bias. Longer-term moving averages remained relatively flat, signaling a lack of momentum on the daily chart and no strong directional bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a strong bullish crossover at 21:45 ET and maintained a positive bias until 00:30 ET. However, it began to diverge in the early morning as price dipped below 4000. The RSI reached overbought levels during the evening surge but dropped below 50 in the final hours, hinting at a pullback or consolidation. A bearish divergence between RSI and price in the final hours of the session reinforced the potential for a short-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked sharply during the late evening, with the bands expanding significantly from 3916 to 4063. Price stayed mostly within the bands during the early hours but breached the upper band at 21:45 ET. A volatility contraction was observed in the early morning hours as the bands narrowed, indicating a possible consolidation phase. Price has remained near the lower band since the morning session, suggesting a potential test of support at 3930.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 21:45 ET during the bullish breakout, with a 15-minute candle showing a volume of 150,110 units, the largest of the session. Turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at the same time. However, a bearish divergence was observed in the final hours as price declined while volume increased, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. Volume has been declining since 03:00 ET, suggesting a waning of conviction in either direction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the 3847–4063 swing showed 38.2% at 3966 and 61.8% at 3928. Price bounced off the 38.2% retracement level twice during the session, suggesting strong support at that level. The 61.8% level was tested in the final hours but failed to hold. Daily Fibonacci levels derived from a broader move showed 3930 as a potential floor if the downward trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy would look to capture the sharp, high-volume breakouts seen in the 21:45 ET candle. A long position could be triggered upon a break above the upper Bollinger Band with confirmation from a bullish engulfing pattern and divergence in RSI. Stops could be placed just below the 20-period moving average, with a take-profit target at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Given the volatility, a dynamic risk management approach would be advised, with position sizing adjusted to account for the sharp swings observed in the data. This strategy could be backtested on 15-minute candles using strict entry and exit rules.