Market Overview for Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP)

Summary
• Price drifted lower after a brief reversal attempt in late evening ET.
• Momentum weakened with RSI falling below key support and volume rising.
• Volatility expanded, with price nearing a key Fibonacci retracement level.
• The session closed near a lower Bollinger Band, signaling bearish bias.
• A potential Bearish Engulfing pattern emerged near 3800, aligning with recent bearish setups.

The Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP) pair opened at 3809.00 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 3810.00 before settling at 3792.00 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-09. The 24-hour session closed at a low of 3788.00. Total volume amounted to 98,384.00 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 371,537,292.00 COP. The pair experienced a bearish drift throughout the day, punctuated by several key candlestick patterns and divergences in volume and price action.

On the 15-minute OHLCV data, USDTCOP formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern near 3800, marking a short-term reversal signal. A potential Doji formed near 3796, suggesting indecision and possible exhaustion in the bearish move. Key support appears to be forming around 3788–3790, while resistance is visible at 3800 and 3805. The 20-period moving average has dipped below the 50-period line, reinforcing the bearish momentum on shorter timeframes. Meanwhile, the 50-period moving average on the daily chart remains above the 200-period line, indicating a mixed longer-term bias.

The RSI has moved below 40, signaling weakening bullish momentum and the possibility of further decline. MACD remains in negative territory with a narrowing histogram, suggesting reduced bearish intensity or possible consolidation ahead. Price action near the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels suggests possible rejections or rebounds, especially if the 3790 level holds. Bollinger Bands have widened significantly, indicating higher volatility; price currently sits near the lower band, increasing the likelihood of a retest of key support.

Volume increased significantly after 21:15 ET, coinciding with a sharp drop from 3805 to 3798 and again after 02:45 ET as price fell to 3788. Notional turnover spiked during these phases, validating the bearish breakouts. A divergence between lower prices and relatively stable volume suggests potential exhaustion in the move.

The Bearish Engulfing pattern formed at 3800 is a key setup for short-term traders, aligning with the bearish thesis in the recent 15-minute data. If confirmed, this pattern may provide a high-probability entry for short-term bearish positions. However, the mixed signals from the daily chart and the potential for a rebound near Fibonacci levels suggest caution. Traders should monitor key support at 3790 and resistance at 3800 for potential reversal signals.

Backtest Hypothesis
The Bearish Engulfing pattern, when identified and acted upon with a 3-day holding period, has shown mixed results in backtesting from 2022 to 2025. While the pattern often signals a trend reversal from bullish to bearish, the 3-day holding period may not capture sufficient price movement to ensure consistent profitability. The recent USDTCOP data aligns with this hypothesis: the Bearish Engulfing pattern formed at 3800, followed by a sharp decline, but the price remains within a range of 3790–3810, suggesting limited directional bias. Given the high volatility and mixed technical signals, traders employing this strategy should consider additional filters or adjust the holding period to better align with current market conditions.