Market Overview for Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP)

Summary
• USDTCOP opened at 3870.0, hit a high of 3919.0 and a low of 3862.0, closing at 3914.0.
• Volatility increased after 17:00 ET with a key break above 3900, followed by consolidation.
• High volume spikes confirmed strength in price action, but divergence appears after 04:00 ET.

Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP) opened at 3870.0 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET, and closed at 3914.0 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a high of 3919.0 and a low of 3862.0. Total traded volume was 520,597.0 units with a notional turnover of 1,994,252,121.0 COP.

The price trend showed an aggressive bullish breakout after 17:00 ET, driven by high volume and a series of strong bullish candles. A 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period at 3890.0, indicating a short-term uptrend. However, after 04:00 ET, momentum weakened with a bearish divergence between price and volume, suggesting potential exhaustion.

Structure & Formations

Bullish engulfing patterns appeared around 21:15 ET and 23:30 ET, both confirming breakouts above key resistance at 3897.0 and 3914.0, respectively. A doji formed at 00:00 ET, indicating a potential pause in the uptrend. Strong support levels were observed at 3885.0 and 3900.0, with price bouncing consistently off these levels.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed at 3890.0, reinforcing the bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is at 3900.0 and appears to be acting as support, with the 200-period moving average providing a long-term floor at 3880.0.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a positive crossover on 17:00 ET with a bullish signal line crossing, but momentum weakened as the histogram began to contract after 04:00 ET. RSI reached overbought territory at 75 around 22:00 ET, but failed to confirm a strong reversal. A slight bearish divergence emerged by 06:30 ET, suggesting caution in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly after 19:00 ET, expanding the upper Bollinger Band to 3908.0 and the lower band to 3876.0. Price tested the upper band multiple times, including a strong close near it at 02:45 ET. A contraction of bands was observed around 03:00 ET, signaling a potential break to follow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 23:00 ET with a large 15-minute candle moving from 3890.0 to 3907.0, indicating strong accumulation. However, after 04:00 ET, volume began to dry up despite continued price movement, raising concerns of weak follow-through. Turnover spiked in line with volume, peaking at 520,597.0 COP at 23:00 ET, but dropped by 06:30 ET as price consolidated.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from 3862.0 to 3919.0, key levels at 3885.0 (38.2%) and 3897.0 (61.8%) were repeatedly tested. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at 3885.0 held well, while the 61.8% level at 3903.0 acted as resistance before being broken.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the effectiveness of the USDTCOP price action, a backtest strategy was proposed using Bullish Engulfing candlestick patterns as entry signals. These patterns were identified from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-05. A 5-day holding period was applied to each signal, with performance metrics including win rate, risk-reward ratio, and average return. This approach leverages the strong bullish tendencies observed in the recent 15-minute chart, particularly around key resistance levels and volume spikes.