Market Overview for Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP)

• USDTCOP traded in a narrow range in the early hours, showing a 1.5% intraday swing before rallying sharply mid-day.
• A strong bullish breakout occurred after 19:00 ET, surpassing key resistance near 3858 and reaching 3866.
• Volatility increased in the afternoon with volume surging past 10,000 units at key turning points.
• The final 15-minute candle closed 1.7% lower than the session high, showing possible profit-taking.
• A late-night pullback below 3850 raises short-term support concerns ahead of the next 24-hour window.

USDTCOP opened at 3854.0 on 2025-10-09 12:00 ET, reached a high of 3867.0, fell to a low of 3833.0, and closed at 3866.0 by 2025-10-10 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 513,667.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,974,290,858 (assuming 1 USD = 1,000 COP as a proxy).

The session featured a key breakout around 19:30 ET, with a bullish candle forming above 3858, followed by a confirmation at 3866. A subsequent pullback in the night session, however, tested the 3850 psychological level and closed near 3833.0, signaling mixed sentiment. Candlestick patterns like the bullish engulfing and bearish dark cloud cover were observed, indicating indecision.

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion in the afternoon, with price moving closer to the upper band as volatility increased. RSI climbed into overbought territory during the breakout and returned to mid-range as the market consolidated. The 20-period EMA provided directional support during the rally, while the 50-period line acted as a resistance earlier in the session.

The volume profile was consistent with price movement, showing peaks around 19:00 ET and 21:00 ET during the breakout and consolidation phases. Notional turnover was higher in the late afternoon and early evening, aligning with the most active price movements.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a mean-reversion strategy based on the 20-period EMA and RSI could offer insights into USDTCOP's behavior. A backtest might involve entering short positions when RSI exceeds 70 and the close crosses above the EMA, with a stop-loss at the 15-period Bollinger Band low. Given the observed overbought conditions and late-night pullback, this approach could offer a probabilistic edge, especially if the 3850 level holds as support.

The market may test 3833.0 as a short-term support level, but a break below this could open the door to 3820.0–3810.0. Conversely, a retest of 3866.0 could re-ignite bullish momentum. Investors should remain cautious of divergences between volume and price, particularly if the next session closes below 3845.0, which might signal deeper weakness.