Market Overview for Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP)

• Price increased from 3831.0 to 3856.0 before closing at 3838.0 after reaching 3856.0.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours, then trended lower with reduced momentum.
• RSI and MACD suggest short-term overbought conditions followed by a bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands showed a clear expansion and contraction, indicating shifting volatility.
• Volume surged in the early hours before tapering, with a final 15-minute spike confirming the close.

USDTCOP opened at 3831.0 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and traded between 3827.0 and 3856.0 before closing at 3838.0 at 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume was 220,411.0, with notional turnover reaching 834,944,665.0. The pair exhibited a volatile morning rally, followed by a consolidation phase and a sharp reversal in the afternoon.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed multiple bullish engulfing and harami patterns during the morning session, particularly around 19:30 and 20:15 ET, supporting a continuation of the upward trend. However, from 13:15 ET onward, bearish reversal patterns emerged, including a hanging man and a shooting star at the peak. The price found resistance near 3856.0 and support around 3830.0–3835.0, which acted as key zones during the consolidation and reversal phases.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (3843.0) and 50-period MA (3845.0) crossed slightly above the price during the morning rally, confirming short-term bullish momentum. The daily chart’s 50-period MA (3834.0), 100-period MA (3833.0), and 200-period MA (3831.0) formed a narrow convergence, suggesting a potential breakout or consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line around 19:00 ET, confirming bullish momentum, but later crossed below the signal line after 13:15 ET, signaling bearish momentum. The RSI hit overbought territory above 70 in the morning before a sharp drop to 45 by mid-afternoon, indicating a bearish divergence and potential exhaustion of the bullish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked in the early hours, with the bands expanding to a width of ~10.0. By 13:15 ET, the bands had contracted, signaling a potential reversal or consolidation phase. Price closed near the lower band of the final 15-minute period, suggesting bearish pressure entering the next day.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early morning and late afternoon, with the largest 15-minute volume spike at 13:15 ET (22,052.0), coinciding with the bearish reversal. Notional turnover confirmed the morning rally and afternoon correction, with the largest turnover observed between 13:15 and 14:00 ET. No significant divergence was observed between volume and price, indicating strong conviction in the reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from 3827.0 to 3856.0, key levels at 3843.0 (38.2%) and 3839.0 (61.8%) acted as resistance during the consolidation. On the daily timeframe, retracement levels from the recent range suggest a potential support at 3831.0 and a resistance at 3856.0 for the next session.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the morning reversal patterns, bearish divergence in the RSI, and volume confirmation at 13:15 ET, a backtest could target a short entry on the 15-minute chart after a rejection from the 3856.0 resistance level. A stop-loss could be placed above the next Fibonacci level at 3854.0, with a target at 3830.0–3835.0, where price found multiple supports during the day. This strategy aligns with the observed structure and momentum shifts, making it a plausible short-term bearish play based on the 24-hour action.