Market Overview: Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP) – 24-Hour Analysis

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• Price action saw a 15-minute pullback to 3832 before consolidating around 3845.
• Momentum shifted from bearish to neutral with RSI hovering near mid-levels.
• Volatility expanded during early ET hours but has since normalized.
• Volume remains steady with no major divergences noted.
• Bollinger Bands suggest moderate volatility, with price near the midband.

USDTCOP opened at 3870.0 (12:00 ET − 1), hit a high of 3870.0 and a low of 3832.0, and closed at 3845.0 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 198,641 with a notional turnover of $754,276,550. The session showed a mix of bearish and neutral tendencies, with price consolidating into a tight range near key Fibonacci and Bollinger midband levels after an initial selloff.

Price tested the 3832.0 level twice, forming small bullish reversal patterns on the 15-minute chart, including a bullish engulfing candle after the 00:15–00:30 ET range. A 3845–3850 cluster appears to be a strong near-term support zone based on repeated price rejection and volume confirmation. Resistance levels at 3860.0 and 3867.0 were tested but not convincingly broken, suggesting bearish bias remains intact.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed near 3845.0, signaling a potential short-term equilibrium point. RSI (14) hovered around 50, suggesting a sideways trend without clear momentum. MACD showed a narrowing histogram and crossed the signal line near zero, indicating fading momentum and indecision. Bollinger Bands expanded during the early hours of the session but have since contracted, showing reduced volatility and consolidation.

Volume spiked during the 19:30–20:30 ET window as price declined from 3860.0 toward 3852.0 and again near the 3832.0 level. Turnover, however, remained stable, indicating no major accumulation or distribution. Divergences between price and turnover were not observed, supporting the idea of a well-supported consolidation phase.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 3832.0–3870.0 swing showed key levels at 3842.0 (38.2%), 3852.0 (50%), and 3860.0 (61.8%). Price has been consolidating near the 38.2–50% zone, which may act as a pivot area over the next 24 hours. A break above 3860.0 would suggest a potential retest of 3870.0, but this would require a volume and momentum confirmation.

Looking ahead, USDTCOP may remain range-bound between 3832.0 and 3867.0 in the near term, with a preference for the lower half of the range if bearish sentiment persists. Investors should watch for a breakout above 3860.0 or a breakdown below 3835.0 for directional clarity. As always, a sudden macroeconomic or geopolitical shift could disrupt this pattern.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential trading strategy could involve a long entry on a bullish engulfing pattern near the 3832–3842 range, with a stop-loss placed below the most recent swing low and a target aligned with the 38.2–50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Short-term trades could also be triggered on RSI overbought conditions above 60 or breakdowns below key moving averages, such as the 50-period. This approach would require a combination of candlestick confirmation and volume validation for higher-probability setups.