Market Overview for Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP) – 24-Hour Analysis

• • •
• Price rose 1.8% over 24 hours with a sharp breakout in the final hour.
• Bollinger Band expansion suggests increased volatility around key Fibonacci levels.
• Volume surged in the last 30 minutes, confirming upward momentum.
• RSI approached overbought territory, hinting at potential consolidation.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near 3853–3854, suggesting renewed buying pressure.

USDTCOP opened at 3868.0 at 12:00 ET – 1 and closed at 3892.0 by 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 3893.0 and a low of 3853.0. Total volume for the period was 246,827.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $962,234,000. The asset showed a strong upward bias in the final hours, driven by sharp price spikes above the 3853–3854 psychological support level.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a bullish engulfing pattern forming around 3853–3854 at the start of the session, followed by a consolidation phase. The price then broke out after 03:00 ET, forming a strong 5-wave up-move into the final 3 hours. A doji appeared near 3852, signaling indecision, but was swiftly followed by a bullish reversal. Key resistance levels are forming at 3875, 3890, and 3893, while support remains at 3870 and 3853.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both rose in tandem with the price, indicating a strong bullish trend. On the daily chart, while the 50-period MA is above the 100- and 200-period MAs, the 50-period line is now starting to pull closer to the 100-period, indicating a potential slowdown in bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines showed a positive divergence from the 20:00 to 07:00 ET window, aligning with the price rally. However, the histogram began to contract around 09:00 ET, suggesting diminishing momentum. RSI climbed above 65 in the final 4 hours, reaching 71 at the close, signaling overbought conditions. This may indicate a short-term pullback is likely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply from 05:00 ET onward, with the Bollinger Bands widening significantly. The price tested the upper band multiple times between 11:00 and 16:00 ET, especially after 15:00 ET when it closed near the upper band at 3893.0. The band contraction between 20:00 and 04:00 ET was followed by a sharp expansion, a sign of impending directional movement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively subdued until 05:00 ET, after which it surged, peaking just before the close at 15:45 ET. The final hour saw a 10x increase in trading activity, coinciding with the price rising past 3890. Notional turnover also spiked in the final hour, confirming the strength of the rally. No major divergences were observed, suggesting price action is backed by buyer commitment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 3853–3893 swing, key retracement levels are at 3867.8 (23.6%), 3875.6 (38.2%), and 3883.4 (50%). The price stalled briefly at 3875 and again at 3883 before surging past 3890. The 61.8% level at 3890.5 was tested and broken, indicating further upside potential if bullish momentum continues.

Looking ahead, USDTCOP is in a strong upward phase, supported by high volume and aligned technical indicators. However, with RSI near overbought territory and Bollinger Bands stretched, a pullback to the 3875–3880 range is likely. Traders should watch for a break below 3870 as a sign of weakening momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current technical environment, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on a breakout above the 3890 level, confirmed by a close above that line and increasing volume. A long entry at 3890 with a stop-loss at 3875 and a take-profit target at 3910 could be tested over the next 24–48 hours. This setup leverages the existing bullish momentum and the Fibonacci level as a psychological barrier, aligning with the strong volume confirmation in the final hour of the 24-hour period.