Market Overview: Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP) – 24-Hour Analysis (2025-10-25)

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• USDTCOP opened at 3850.0, peaked at 3863.0, and closed at 3862.0, with a 24-hour low of 3837.0.
• Price consolidated between 3845.0–3855.0 before a late-session breakout above 3855.0.
• Volume was uneven but surged at key price levels, notably during the final 2 hours of the session.
• RSI and MACD show rising momentum, though RSI is near overbought territory.
• Bollinger Bands constricted earlier in the day before a sharp expansion and breakout.

The Tether/Colombian Peso pair (USDTCOP) opened at 3850.0 on 2025-10-25, hit a high of 3863.0, and closed at 3862.0 with a low of 3837.0. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 235,400 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 906,870,000 COP, assuming consistent pricing across intervals. The pair exhibited a choppy early session, followed by a clear bullish reversal in the afternoon and evening.

Structure & Formations

USDTCOP demonstrated a consolidation phase between 3845.0 and 3855.0 for most of the session, with bearish and bullish engulfing patterns alternating on the 15-minute chart. A key bearish reversal was observed at 3852.0 before a large bullish hammer formed at 3846.0, followed by a bullish breakout above 3855.0. The price closed above the consolidation range on a long upper wick, suggesting continued upside potential. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the final hour, confirming the breakout.

Support and Resistance Levels

Key support levels identified include 3845.0, 3840.0, and 3837.0. Resistance levels are at 3855.0, 3860.0, and 3863.0. A break above 3863.0 could target 3868.0–3875.0, while a retest of 3845.0 could validate it as a short-term support level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into alignment in the final hour, signaling a bullish bias. Both moving averages trended upward in the last four hours, reinforcing the bullish momentum. The 50-period moving average sits at approximately 3852.0, while the 20-period line is at 3856.0, indicating a strong short-term upward bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive at 19:00 ET, with the signal line crossing into positive territory by 21:00 ET. The histogram expanded, indicating strong bullish momentum. The RSI, which was neutral (50–55) early in the day, rose above 60 in the final four hours, entering overbought territory. This suggests caution as a potential pullback may be due, though the sustained RSI above 60 indicates continued buyer dominance.

Momentum Implications

While the RSI suggests overbought conditions, the MACD and bullish price action indicate strong accumulation. The pair appears to be in a short-term bullish phase, with buyers maintaining control despite the overbought reading. A close above 3865.0 may prompt a retest of 3870.0.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a noticeable contraction between 18:30 ET and 20:45 ET, indicating reduced volatility and a potential breakout. The price broke above the upper band at 22:00 ET and remained outside for the remainder of the session, suggesting a shift in volatility and a breakout of the previous range. The widening of the bands in the final hour confirms the bullish trend continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was uneven throughout the 24-hour period, with a significant increase starting at 20:00 ET. The largest volume spike occurred at 22:00 ET, where over 10,000 units were traded, coinciding with the breakout above 3855.0. Notional turnover also increased in tandem, with the highest turnover occurring between 22:00 ET and 00:30 ET. The volume profile supports the validity of the breakout, as higher volume confirms the shift in price direction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the intraday swing from 3837.0 (low) to 3863.0 (high), the 61.8% retracement is at 3852.0 and the 38.2% at 3857.0. The 50% level sits at 3850.0, which the price retraced from in the final hour before surging higher. The current price (3862.0) is slightly above the 61.8% level, indicating a strong bearish-to-bullish reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

To construct a backtesting strategy for USDTCOP, it would be essential to have a reliable historical dataset for the USD/COP spot rate, which appears to be unavailable in the current dataset under the ticker USDTCOP. A potential approach would involve using a proxy USD/foreign currency pair with similar volatility characteristics, such as USD/MXN or USD/COP from a different provider. A 15-minute breakout strategy could be tested, triggering buy orders at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and sell orders at the 38.2% level, with stop-loss and take-profit based on Bollinger Band volatility. Further refinement would require a verified USD/COP dataset.