Market Overview for Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP) — 24-Hour Analysis (10/30–10/31 2025)

• USDTCOP traded in a tight 15-min range with a high of 3887 and low of 3861, closing near 3881.
• Momentum showed signs of waning as RSI hovered in mid-range territory, suggesting consolidation.
• Volume distribution was uneven, with strong activity during early ET hours and fading participation post-market open.
• Key resistance at 3882 and support at 3864 were tested multiple times without clear breakouts.
• Bollinger Bands reflected a moderate volatility contraction, pointing to potential for a breakout.

The Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP) pair opened at 3879 on October 30, 2025, reaching a high of 3887 and a low of 3861 before closing at 3881 on October 31 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume amounted to 309,935 units over the 24-hour period, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.2 billion. Price action was characterized by a narrow 15-min range, with indecision evident in multiple doji and spinning top patterns, particularly during the overnight hours.

Looking at the 15-minute OHLC data, USDTCOP traded within a tight channel between 3864 and 3887, forming a consolidation pattern. The most notable formations included a bullish engulfing candle at 18:45 ET and a bearish hanging man at 04:00 ET. These signals suggested a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, with neither side securing a decisive advantage. The key support level of 3864 held firm for most of the period, while resistance at 3882 was repeatedly tested but not decisively breached.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were closely aligned, suggesting a flat to slightly bullish bias. However, the 50-period MA began to flatten as the day progressed, indicating a potential shift in momentum. MACD was in neutral territory with a flat histogram and a crossover near zero, while the RSI hovered around 50–55, signaling a lack of strong directional bias. Bollinger Bands narrowed during the early part of the session, reflecting low volatility, before expanding as late-ET activity picked up.

USDTCOP’s price action suggests a potential breakout may occur in the next 24 hours, particularly if volume increases and either the 3882 or 3864 level is decisively breached. However, investors should remain cautious as the market appears to be in a waiting mode for catalysts or external news. A sudden increase in liquidity demand in the Colombian peso or Tether could tip the balance either way.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtested strategy using SPY from January 1, 2022, through October 31, 2025, demonstrated a total return of 13.36% with an annualized return of 3.81%. This aligns with a conservative approach emphasizing risk control—2% take-profit, 5% stop-loss—often seen in range-bound or consolidation markets like USDTCOP. The RSI-based overbought threshold (70) and daily close price entry criteria are similar to the technical indicators observed here, where RSI remained in a neutral zone without strong overbought or oversold signals. While SPY’s performance does not directly mirror USDTCOP’s dynamics, the use of risk-defined positions and volatility-based entry points appears applicable to a pair in consolidation. The strategy’s Sharpe ratio of 0.39 and max drawdown of 11.74% highlight the trade-off between risk and return in such a context, reinforcing the need for cautious positioning in USDTCOP as it awaits a breakout.