Market Overview for Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP) – 2025-10-14

• USDTCOP traded in a tight range most of the day but saw a late surge to a 24-hour high of 3,985.
• A bullish breakout above 3,964 confirmed by strong volume suggests renewed buyer interest.
• Volatility spiked after 13:45 ET, with price rising past key resistance, while RSI moved into overbought territory.
• Bollinger Bands widened after 13:45 ET, reflecting rising uncertainty and divergent market sentiment.

The Tether/Colombian Peso (USDTCOP) pair opened at 3,965 on October 13 at 12:00 ET and traded in a narrow consolidation pattern for most of the day. By 12:00 ET on October 14, the pair closed at 3,964, having touched a high of 3,985 and a low of 3,930. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 311,218 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,232,000. The price action appears to have been driven by increasing buyer aggression in the late morning and early afternoon, as evidenced by large-volume bullish candles and a breakout above key resistance levels.

Price action showed a strong consolidation pattern in the early hours, with the pair hovering between 3,940 and 3,955 for nearly six hours. This was followed by a breakout to the upside beginning at 08:00 ET, with the price climbing to a 24-hour high at 3,985. A series of strong bullish candles with high volume suggests a possible reversal of short-term bearish momentum. The 15-minute chart shows a strong fractal high at 3,985 and a fractal low at 3,930, forming a clear channel breakout to the upside. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 13:15 ET, confirming the breakout.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish cross as the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA around 12:45 ET. This was followed by a strong acceleration in price action. The daily chart showed the 50-day MA at 3,950, with the pair trading above it for most of the session, suggesting a potential continuation of the bullish trend. The 200-day MA, at 3,920, acted as a strong support level during earlier price corrections.

On the MACD, the histogram turned positive from 11:45 ET onward, and the crossover at 12:45 ET confirmed the bullish momentum. The RSI moved into overbought territory above 70 after 13:00 ET, indicating strong buying pressure. Bollinger Bands widened significantly after 13:45 ET, with the price moving well above the upper band, a sign of increased volatility and potential continuation of the upward move. Fibonacci retracement levels from the key 15-minute swing show the 38.2% level at 3,958 and the 61.8% level at 3,973, both of which were tested and broken during the breakout.

Volume and notional turnover spiked significantly after 13:45 ET, with large-volume candles confirming the price breakouts. The 15-minute candle at 13:45 ET had the highest volume of the session at 16,616 units and was accompanied by a sharp price increase of 19 COP. The volume profile also shows a divergence after 14:45 ET, with the price pulling back while volume remained high, suggesting possible profit-taking. The notional turnover rose sharply during the breakout phase, indicating increased liquidity and investor participation.

Backtest Hypothesis

To test the robustness of the recent breakout pattern and potential continuation of bullish momentum, we propose a backtesting strategy based on the 15-minute timeframe. The strategy would look for a bullish breakout from a consolidation pattern, confirmed by a bullish engulfing candle with high volume. A long entry would be triggered when the price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band with RSI above 60 and a 20-period MA crossing above the 50-period MA. Stops would be placed below the most recent swing low, and a take-profit target would be based on the 61.8% Fibonacci extension. This approach aligns with the observed technical conditions on October 14 and could offer insights into the pair’s potential short-term behavior.