Market Overview: Tether/Brazilian Real (USDTBRL) 24-Hour Summary

• Price declined from 5.3963 to 5.3991, ending near 5.3991 with moderate bearish bias.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with a high of 5.41 and a low of 5.375.
• Volume was uneven, with sharp spikes during midday and early evening.
• RSI moved into oversold territory during the final hours, suggesting potential near-term bounce.
• A potential short-term support appears forming around 5.396–5.398.

Tether/Brazilian Real (USDTBRL) opened at 5.3878 on 2025-10-30 12:00 ET and reached a high of 5.41 by 02:30 ET before closing at 5.3991 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-31. The pair fell to a session low of 5.375 early in the morning, marking a significant 24-hour range. Total volume amounted to 33.7 million BRL, while turnover reached approximately 188 million USDT, indicating increased participation during volatile swings.

Price action showed a bearish bias for most of the day, marked by a sharp decline during the early hours and a gradual consolidation near the lower end of the range. A key bearish pattern was observed between 21:15 and 21:30 ET, where a long green candle was followed by a larger red candle that fully engulfed the previous close. This bearish engulfing pattern suggested a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish. The price found temporary support at 5.385 and 5.390–5.392 multiple times, but failed to hold above 5.396–5.397. The most recent support appears to be forming in the 5.396–5.398 range, while resistance is likely to remain at 5.400–5.402.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover during the night, reinforcing the short-term downtrend. The 50-period moving average, currently at 5.394, acts as a dynamic support, while the 20-period line has drifted slightly above it. The daily MA 200 is currently below the 20-period, indicating a bearish divergence. Momentum, as measured by the MACD, showed a bearish crossover and a declining histogram, aligning with the bearish engulfing and price action. RSI confirmed the bearish trend, dropping into oversold territory by the late hours of the session, suggesting a potential bounce could be due if the support at 5.396–5.398 holds.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the morning and early afternoon, reflecting heightened volatility. The price spent much of the session in the lower half of the band, suggesting bearish control. A contraction of the bands occurred late in the session, which could indicate a potential reversal or continuation phase depending on volume and close. The upper band hovered around 5.400–5.401, while the lower band dropped near 5.385–5.390.

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 5.375–5.41 swing revealed key retracement levels at 5.392 (61.8%) and 5.385 (100%). The price tested the 5.392 level twice during the afternoon, which may act as a pivot point. A successful break above 5.396 could trigger a retest of 5.400, while a break below 5.390 could accelerate the downtrend toward 5.385.

In the next 24 hours, a test of 5.396–5.398 appears likely. If the support holds and RSI moves back into neutral territory, a short-term bounce to 5.400 may occur. However, a breakdown below 5.390–5.391 could lead to renewed selling pressure. Investors should monitor the 20-period MA and RSI for early signs of reversal or continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis
To assess the efficacy of using the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern as a sell signal for USDTBRL, a backtest would need to identify all instances of this pattern between 2022-01-01 and today. This data is currently unavailable due to an error in the automated retrieval system. One practical approach is to either: 1) provide the specific list of historical Bearish Engulfing pattern dates manually for further analysis, or 2) attempt a more stable data source, which may require additional time and iterative verification. Given the clear bearish signal observed today and the alignment with broader technical indicators, the Bearish Engulfing pattern could serve as a viable short-term sell trigger if confirmed by historical performance data.