Market Overview for Tether/Brazilian Real (USDTBRL) as of 2025-11-14

Summary
• Price opened at 5.2863, peaked at 5.3074, and closed at 5.3052 with 5.2852 as support.
• Momentum shows overbought RSI and positive MACD divergence.
• Volatility remained stable, with volume increasing in the last 6 hours.

Tether/Brazilian Real (USDTBRL) opened at 5.2863 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 5.3052 at 12:00 ET the following day. The price hit a high of 5.3074 and a low of 5.2852 over the 24-hour period. Total volume reached approximately 35.9 million BRL, while total turnover amounted to roughly 190 million BRL.

Over the past 24 hours, USDTBRL has exhibited a steady uptrend, with the price forming a small bullish flag pattern following a sharp rally to 5.3074. A key resistance level appears to be forming around 5.3074, where multiple candlesticks have failed to close above. Meanwhile, support holds at 5.3051–5.3053, with the price consolidating around this level in the last 12 hours.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both point higher, with the 50 MA crossing above the 20 MA in the last hour—suggesting a potential short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages remain aligned to the upside, indicating a continuation of the medium-term trend.

The 15-minute MACD has shown a positive divergence, with bullish momentum increasing in the last 6 hours. RSI has been hovering above 65, indicating overbought conditions, though not yet extreme. Bollinger Bands have remained relatively narrow, suggesting moderate volatility, with price staying within the upper band in the last hour. No extreme overbought or oversold conditions have formed on the RSI or MACD.

Volume spiked during the 5.3019–5.3074 price range, confirming the upward move. Notional turnover increased significantly around the 5.3074 level, indicating strong buyer interest. The absence of bearish divergence in volume and price suggests continued bullish sentiment.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart suggest that 5.3051–5.3054 corresponds to the 61.8% retracement level of the recent upswing. This area is now consolidating as a potential pivot point. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level appears to be 5.3173, a potential future resistance target.

Backtest Hypothesis
To back-test the effectiveness of using RSI for trade signals, we could simulate a strategy where we buy USDTBRL when the RSI crosses above 70 and sell when it drops below 70. Given the current RSI hovering near overbought territory, a signal may be triggered soon. This approach would work best with a stop-loss and take-profit to manage risk. Applying this strategy to USDTBRL from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-14 using daily closing prices could offer insights into its profitability and consistency in this pair.