Market Overview for Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) – October 13, 2025

• Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) fell 0.7% over 24 hours, closing near session lows amid bearish momentum.
• Price action formed a descending channel with 1520–1525 as overhead resistance and 1495–1500 as key support.
• Volatility expanded sharply after 20:00 ET, with a 15-minute candle printing a 21-point range and high volume.
• RSI fell below 50, confirming weakening bullish momentum, though no overbought/oversold signals emerged.
• Bollinger Bands showed price hovering near the lower band for most of the session, suggesting bearish bias.

The Tether/Argentine Peso pair (USDTARS) opened at 1523.0 on October 12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1433.1 on October 13 at the same hour, recording a 24-hour low of 1420.0 and a high of 1526.0. Total traded volume reached 1,264,266.0, with notional turnover driven by large-volume declines in the early evening hours. A broad bearish trend unfolded as price action broke below key psychological levels, with the 1500–1510 range failing to hold as support.

Structure and formations show a clear descending pattern, with multiple bearish engulfing and inside bars appearing after 19:00 ET. Notably, the candle at 21:30 ET (1504.7–1504.7) formed a tight-range bar, signaling a potential consolidation point. The 1520–1525 zone acted as a ceiling, with multiple rejections and bearish divergence in volume at those levels. A 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart both closed below price, reinforcing the downward bias.

Momentum indicators reinforced the bearish sentiment. The RSI remained below 50 for much of the session, with a low of 38.2% at 10:00 ET, suggesting oversold conditions. However, no rebound materialized, indicating weak buying interest. MACD remained in negative territory, with the histogram shrinking after 05:00 ET, signaling fading bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands showed price lingering near the lower band, with volatility expanding after the 20:00 ET candle, confirming a breakout to the downside.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the 1526.0–1420.0 move identified 1462.0 (61.8%) and 1492.0 (38.2%) as potential key levels. The 1441.7 low (13:30 ET) aligns with the 61.8% retracement level, where price found some temporary support. Volume confirmed the bearish move, with large-volume candles from 21:30 to 23:45 ET contributing to the breakdown. Notional turnover spiked during the 22:00–23:45 ET window, suggesting increased participation from larger market participants.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum observed in the Tether/Argentine Peso pair, one could consider applying a similar RSI-based strategy as a potential shorting signal. In the equity space, a backtest of the “RSI-Overbought Short” strategy on SPY from 2022–01–01 to 2025–10–13 showed a negative annualized return of –1.29%. While the current RSI of USDTARS is not in overbought territory, it remains in the lower half of its range, suggesting weak momentum. The strategy, which assumes overbought conditions for shorting, may not be directly applicable to a pair that is already in a bearish phase. Further testing on forex or stablecoin cross pairs like this could offer insights into whether such momentum-driven shorting strategies can yield better risk-adjusted returns in less liquid or pegged markets.

Looking ahead, traders should watch the 1440.0–1450.0 range for potential short-term support. A break below 1435.0 could accelerate the decline toward the 1420.0 level, but caution is warranted as volume has already thinned after the 08:00 ET window. A reversal above 1470.0 may indicate weakening bearish control, though the RSI and moving averages still favor the downside. As always, market conditions can shift rapidly due to macroeconomic factors, especially in emerging market currency pairs like this one.