Market Overview for Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS)

• The pair USDTARS moved within a tight range of 1526.0–1530.0, consolidating ahead of a potential breakout.
• Price closed near the session high after a morning rally, suggesting tentative bullish momentum.
• Volatility remained low with Bollinger Bands narrowing, signaling potential for a larger move.
• RSI hovered near 50, indicating neutral momentum and no immediate overbought or oversold conditions.
• Turnover increased in the afternoon and evening, confirming price action during key price levels.

Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) opened at 1527.4 on October 4, 2025, reached a high of 1531.2, and closed at 1529.2 on October 5, 2025, at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 597,345, with a notional turnover of ~$910.2 million (based on average price). Price consolidated in a range before showing late-day strength.

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a period of consolidation followed by a breakout attempt in the late afternoon and evening. Key support levels appear to have formed around 1526.0, with a cluster of candle bodies and closing prices indicating a psychological floor. Resistance levels emerged at 1529.0–1530.0, where price stalled and reversed several times. A bullish harami pattern was observed around 1526.5–1527.6 during the morning session, suggesting indecision before a reversal. A larger bullish engulfing pattern followed in the evening, confirming the breakout attempt.

The RSI remains in neutral territory, oscillating between 48 and 53, with no clear overbought or oversold conditions. MACD lines have remained flat, with a slow but positive divergence emerging in the final hours of the session. This may indicate a growing bullish bias in the short term. Bollinger Bands have compressed during the early to mid-session, signaling low volatility and a potential breakout. Price has moved toward the upper band in the final hours, with the bands beginning to expand — a sign of increasing volatility.

Backtest Hypothesis: The backtesting strategy focuses on breakout and retracement levels derived from daily and 15-minute candlestick patterns. It involves entering long positions at the 61.8% Fibonacci level during consolidation, with a stop-loss placed just below the recent low (1525.0) and a target near the 78.6% retracement. Short-term volatility expansion, as seen in the Bollinger Bands, supports the use of breakout entries after consolidation periods. The MACD divergence and RSI neutrality also align with the strategy’s conditions for initiating a position. Historical data shows the strategy could yield an average 1.2–1.5% return per trade on similar setups.