Market Overview for Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS)

• Price dropped from 1553.4 to 1530.7, forming bearish patterns like dark cloud cover and inside bars.
• RSI and MACD suggest fading momentum, with RSI near 25 and MACD in bearish territory.
• Volatility expanded midday, with volume spiking at 1528.3 before consolidating.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, signaling potential for a rebound or test of support.
• Fibonacci levels at 1534.0 and 1530.0 appear to be critical for near-term direction.

The Tether/Argentine Peso pair (USDTARS) opened at 1551.7 at 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-02 and closed at 1530.7 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. The 24-hour range was 1553.4 (high) to 1525.0 (low). Total volume reached 2,565,134.0, and notional turnover amounted to 4,029,405,926.3 (assuming 1 USD = 1530.7 ARS for estimation).

Over the past 24 hours, USDTARS experienced a clear bearish trend with a series of bearish candlestick patterns emerging. The price formed a dark cloud cover pattern around 1545.4 and later an inside bar near 1530.2, indicating potential short-term exhaustion. Key support levels at 1534.0 and 1530.0 were tested, and a doji formed near 1530.7, hinting at indecision.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a significant bearish shift as it broke below key support at 1534.0 and tested 1530.0. The formation of multiple inside bars and dojis suggests a potential near-term pause or reversal. The 1525.0 level now acts as a critical support, where a rebound may be expected if bulls show strength.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is near 1530.0, aligning with recent support. A cross above the 50-period MA could signal short-term stabilization, while a break below 1525.0 would validate further bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The RSI fell to around 25, suggesting oversold conditions and a possible short-term rebound. MACD remains negative, with the histogram tightening, indicating fading bearish momentum. If RSI breaks above 40, it could support a small bounce. However, a failure to hold above 30 may trigger a deeper test of support at 1525.0.

Bollinger Bands

Price has been near the lower Bollinger Band for much of the session, signaling high volatility and potential for a reversal. A breakout above the upper band could confirm a short-term bounce, while a breakdown below the lower band may indicate further weakness.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during a key drop from 1545.4 to 1530.1, with a large candle confirming bearish conviction. Recent volume has been lower, suggesting exhaustion. The notional turnover increased significantly during the afternoon, indicating heightened interest from traders. Price and turnover appear aligned, offering no divergence for now.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels at 1534.0 (38.2%) and 1530.0 (61.8%) appear to act as key support levels. A break below 1525.0 would signal a 78.6% retracement and raise the possibility of further depreciation. Bulls may test the 1534.0 level as a possible bounce zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy focuses on a mean-reversion setup using RSI and MACD divergence signals. Specifically, it triggers a long position when RSI falls below 30 and MACD turns up, suggesting oversold conditions with improving momentum. From today’s data, this strategy could have fired a potential long signal around 1530.5–1530.7 as RSI approached oversold levels and MACD showed a tightening histogram. If the price holds above 1530.0, this could validate the short-term bounce potential of the strategy. Historical testing of such setups over the last 30 days would be required to assess win rate and risk-reward profile.