Market Overview: Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS)

• Price opened at 1545.0 and closed at 1519.4, with a 24-hour low of 1511.0.
• A sharp bearish reversal occurred after 14:30 ET, with volume spiking to 210,391.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions by 16:00 ET, suggesting possible short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded during the selloff, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the peak, confirming downward momentum.

24-Hour Price Action Summary

Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) opened at 1545.0 at 12:00 ET on October 8, reached a high of 1548.3, and a low of 1511.0, closing at 1519.4 as of 12:00 ET on October 9. The pair traded with a total volume of 1,991,813 and a notional turnover of 3,090,946,434. The price action suggests a strong bearish bias, especially in the last six hours of the period, marked by a significant drop and divergent volume behavior.

Structure & Formations

The price structure revealed multiple bearish signs, including a bearish engulfing pattern at the top near 1545.0 and a long lower wick at 1540.0. Key support levels appear to be forming at 1535.0–1540.0 and 1520.0–1525.0, while resistance remains at 1545.0–1548.0. The candlestick formation on October 9 at 14:30 ET suggests a potential exhaustion of upward momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are bearish, with the price falling below both after the sharp drop. On a daily basis, the 50- and 100-period MAs are both sloping downward, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 200-day MA may act as a key psychological level in the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish in the last 15 minutes of the 24-hour period, with a negative crossover and declining histogram. The RSI dropped to oversold territory, dipping below 30 around 16:00 ET, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce, although this is unlikely to reverse the overall bearish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the late drop, pushing the price well below the lower Bollinger Band. The bands themselves widened, indicating increased uncertainty and fear in the market. Price may remain near the lower band or attempt to retrace toward the middle band in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the selloff, particularly around 14:30 ET, when a large 210,391-volume candle confirmed the breakdown. Turnover also increased dramatically during this period. The divergence between rising turnover and falling prices may suggest a potential shift in sentiment, though caution is warranted as volume was unevenly distributed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from 1548.3 to 1511.0, the 38.2% level is at 1532.5 and the 61.8% level at 1524.9. The price has tested both levels with some support, indicating possible consolidation or a bounce from the 1520.0–1525.0 range in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and the price drop confirming a breakdown, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short trade at the close of the 14:30 ET candle with a stop above 1545.0 and a target near 1510.0–1515.0. The strategy would aim to capture a continuation of the downward move using a combination of candlestick confirmation and technical indicators like MACD and RSI to time entries. This approach would require careful risk management, particularly due to the uneven volume profile and potential for volatility spikes.