Market Overview for Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) – 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price opened at 1474.8, peaked at 1478.5, and closed at 1474.5 with a range of 1468.9–1478.5.
• Late-day consolidation capped volatility with a narrow range and reduced turnover.
• Volume spiked during the 21:45–22:00 ET range, coinciding with a bullish breakout and retest.
• RSI indicated overbought conditions mid-day, but failed to confirm strong follow-through.
• Bollinger Bands showed tightening volatility in the last 5 hours, hinting at a potential reversal.

Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) opened at 1474.8 at 12:00 ET−1, reached a high of 1478.5, touched a low of 1468.9, and closed at 1474.5 by 12:00 ET today. Total volume for the 24-hour period amounted to 666,337.0, with a notional turnover of approximately 987,529,000 ARS. Price action reflected choppy morning trading, a midday rally, and late-day consolidation.

Structure & Formations

Price found strong resistance near 1478.5, with a series of bearish divergence patterns emerging after the midday high. The 1474.5–1475.0 level appears to act as a key support zone, as seen in multiple retests during the session. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 18:45 ET, suggesting short-term bearish pressure. A bullish morning breakout at 22:00 ET was retested but failed to push higher.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA rose from 1473.0 to 1475.3, crossing above the 50-period MA to signal a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (1470.0) acted as a floor, while the 200-period MA (1465.0) remained in support. Price closed just above the 50 MA, but below the 20 MA, hinting at a mixed near-term outlook.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed into positive territory at 21:00 ET, aligning with a breakout, but histogram strength waned after 23:00 ET, suggesting weakening momentum. RSI peaked at 68 mid-day and retreated to 58 by close, failing to confirm strong bullish conviction. A bearish divergence appeared in the late hours, as price made higher highs while RSI made lower highs.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was wide in the early session, with bands expanding to 1479.0 and 1467.0. Bands narrowed in the last 5 hours, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. Price spent the final 2 hours within the inner 2/3 of the bands, a precursor to potential breakout or reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 21:45–22:00 ET, during a bullish breakout attempt. Notional turnover reached a session high of 7.7 million ARS during that period. Divergence emerged in the final hour, as volume declined while price action remained range-bound, hinting at a lack of conviction in the current range.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 1474.5–1478.5 move saw a 61.8% retracement at 1476.5, which acted as a temporary pivot. A 38.2% retracement at 1477.0 also saw multiple touches and retests. On the daily chart, the 1470.0 level represents a 61.8% retracement from a recent decline, and appears to have capped bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a backtest using USDTARS, a viable hypothesis could be to short at the close when RSI peaks above 60 and price fails to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss placed above the 20-period MA. Exit rules may include a 5-period holding period or a 10% take-profit and 8% stop-loss. Daily close prices should be used for entry and exit. This setup aligns with the bearish divergence and overbought conditions observed.