Market Overview for Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) on 2025-10-31

• Price opened at 1490.0 and traded in a tight range before surging past 1495 by late evening.
• Volatility spiked during the 19:30–20:00 ET window with a high of 1497.4 and a low of 1495.8.
• Turnover remained moderate but increased during key bullish breakouts and bearish pullbacks.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions toward the end of the session, potentially signaling a near-term correction.
• Bollinger Bands indicate a recent contraction in volatility, suggesting a potential breakout in the coming hours.

Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) opened at 1490.0 on October 31 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 1497.4 and a low of 1487.6, before closing at 1493.1 at 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume amounted to 1,159,461.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,730,632,323.00 during the 24-hour period.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart reveal a consolidation phase early in the session, followed by a sharp bearish breakdown to 1488.0 before a strong reversal began around 19:30 ET. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged at the 19:30–19:45 ET interval, signaling a shift in momentum. Key support levels were observed near 1490.0 and 1488.0, while resistance levels formed around 1495.0 and 1497.0. A long-legged doji at 21:15 ET highlighted indecision in the market after a strong rally.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained closely aligned, indicating a relatively flat trend, though the 50-period line began to slope upward as price surged past 1495. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages appear to be converging, suggesting potential for a longer-term bullish crossover if the current momentum is sustained. The 100-period line currently lags slightly behind, indicating a moderate but not aggressive bullish tilt.

MACD & RSI Momentum

The MACD line crossed above the signal line around 19:30 ET, confirming a bullish signal that coincided with the engulfing pattern. However, the histogram began to contract after 21:00 ET, suggesting waning momentum. RSI reached overbought territory above 70 by 21:15 ET, indicating a potential pullback or consolidation phase in the short term. While RSI briefly dipped into oversold conditions around 00:30 ET, the bounce failed to push past the previous resistance at 1495.0, hinting at a possible continuation of range trading.

Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly from 03:00–06:00 ET, signaling a period of low volatility and a likely precursor to a breakout or breakdown. Price then moved sideways within the bands until late evening, when a sharp upward breakout pushed the upper band higher, reflecting increased bullish sentiment. The current closing price lies near the upper Bollinger Band, reinforcing the idea that buyers are in control, though a retest of the lower band could provide a key opportunity for a bearish reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent 15-minute swing from 1497.4 to 1488.0 shows key levels at 1493.2 (38.2%), 1491.6 (50%), and 1490.2 (61.8%). Price closed near the 38.2% level on the 24-hour chart, suggesting a potential continuation of the bullish trend if the 1493.2 level holds. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level is near 1495.0, which has acted as both a resistance and a support point, making it a critical area to watch for the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish breakdown to 1488.0 and then again during the bullish reversal at 19:30–20:00 ET, confirming the strength of both movements. However, during the late-night consolidation phase, volume decreased despite the RSI reaching overbought levels, suggesting a potential divergence that could signal a bearish correction. Turnover also saw significant spikes during these critical windows, reinforcing the idea that large participants were involved in the key price moves.

Looking ahead, USDTARS may test the 1495.0–1497.0 resistance cluster if the current bullish momentum persists, but a correction to the 1490.0–1488.0 support zone could be triggered by a break of the 1493.1 level. Investors should remain cautious of the overbought RSI and potential Bollinger Band expansion as indicators of near-term volatility.

Backtest Hypothesis

To accurately backtest a RSI-based strategy for USDTARS, it is essential to confirm the correct ticker symbol for Tether in Argentine Pesos — likely “USDTARS” as mentioned — to ensure historical data accuracy. Assuming the use of a standard 14-period RSI with overbought and oversold thresholds at 70 and 30, respectively, and executing trades at the next bar’s close, a backtest from January 1, 2022, to October 31, 2025, could reveal the strategy’s viability. Given the recent overbought conditions observed in the RSI, such a strategy would have triggered an exit or short signal had the data been available. This aligns with the observed price behavior and reinforces the need to validate this approach using accurate historical data.