Market Overview for Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) - 2025-10-28

• Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) rose from 1,432.7 ARS to a high of 1,498.0 ARS, closing the 24-hour period at 1,489.4 ARS.
• Price action showed a bullish momentum with a clear 15-minute breakout above prior high resistance during late trading hours.
• Volume increased notably after 19:00 ET, coinciding with the strongest upward price impulse, suggesting institutional or large-cap trader involvement.
• RSI moved into overbought territory near 70, indicating potential short-term correction, though sustained momentum suggests caution in timing.
• Bollinger Bands widened late in the session, reflecting increased volatility and a strong push to the upside.

The Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) opened at 1,432.7 ARS at 12:00 ET − 1 and climbed to an intraday high of 1,498.0 ARS before closing at 1,489.4 ARS at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume reached 1,465,773 ARS, with a notional turnover of 947,352,833 ARS. The price action shows a strong upward bias, supported by elevated volume and momentum indicators.

Over the 15-minute chart, the pair formed several bullish patterns, including a takuri candle and rising bullish engulfing during the session’s peak. The 20-period moving average acted as a dynamic support and was consistently crossed on the upside, reinforcing the bullish trend. Price remained above the 50-period MA, suggesting short-term continuation of the uptrend. The 50/100/200 MA crossover on the daily chart remains neutral to slightly bullish, though longer-term averages are still catching up with the recent acceleration.

The RSI closed near 69, indicating overbought conditions and raising the risk of a short-term pullback or consolidation phase. However, MACD remains in positive territory with a bullish crossover and a rising histogram, suggesting continuation of the upward thrust is likely unless there is a sudden drop in buying pressure. The Bollinger Band squeeze observed earlier in the session gave way to a strong expansion, with price settling near the upper band — a classic setup for volatility-driven continuation.

The Fibonacci retracement levels of recent 15-minute swings suggest that 1,480 ARS and 1,470 ARS may act as key support zones in the event of a pullback. Conversely, the 1,500 ARS level marks a critical psychological resistance that could trigger a pause in the rally if it fails to hold. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement of the most recent bullish leg lies at 1,450 ARS, a level that could become relevant in the event of a broader correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the lack of classical pivot-point data for USDTARS, the Donchian channel approach emerges as a pragmatic and dynamic alternative to assess key support and resistance levels. A 20-day rolling high can be treated as a dynamic resistance, and a 20-day rolling low as dynamic support, with price action after the break of these levels serving as the basis for backtesting. Using this method, we can evaluate the likelihood of trend continuation or reversal after a breakout. For example, if the price closes above the 20-day high, it may trigger a long signal, while a close below the 20-day low could act as a short signal. This approach is particularly suitable for a fiat-pegged stablecoin like Tether in an emerging market context, where volatility is driven by macroeconomic and currency risk.