Market Overview for Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) – 2025-10-24

• The pair USDTARS experienced a sharp decline from 1580.5 to 1551.8, forming a bearish flag pattern in late ET hours.
• RSI hit oversold territory near 30 by the close of the 24-hour period, indicating potential for a near-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded with a widening of Bollinger Bands, suggesting increased uncertainty and potential breakouts.
• Volume surged during the bearish reversal, particularly in the 18:15 ET to 20:00 ET window, confirming the strength of the selloff.
• Key support at 1553.0 appears to have held, with potential for a retest of 1545.1 if bears regain control.

Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) opened at 1579.8 on 2025-10-23 at 12:00 ET and traded in a bearish direction over the next 24 hours, reaching a high of 1580.5 and a low of 1541.4 before closing at 1551.8 on 2025-10-24 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume stood at 1,497,748.0 units, with notional turnover amounting to 236,168,460.0 (ARS). The session was characterized by a clear bearish bias with increasing selling pressure in the late evening hours.

Structure & Formations

A distinct bearish flag pattern formed during the late ET hours as the price consolidated between 1553.0 and 1559.0 before breaking lower. The pattern was supported by increasing volume and a long lower shadow in the 18:15 ET candle, indicating rejection at higher levels. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed in the 18:15 to 18:30 ET timeframe, confirming the downward shift. The 1553.0 level acted as a temporary support, with a potential retest of 1545.1 on the radar.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed bearishly into the red, confirming the ongoing downtrend. The price remained below the 50 SMA for the majority of the session, with a brief recovery in the early morning ET hours. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is approaching 1565.0, a level that may serve as a psychological barrier for the near term. If the price fails to recover above the 200 SMA, a deeper correction into 1530.0 could be expected.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish divergence in the late ET hours, with the histogram narrowing as the price hit key support levels. The RSI reached an oversold level near 30 by the close, suggesting a potential rebound in the short term. However, the RSI remains in a bearish trendline, indicating that any bounce may be short-lived. The combination of overbought momentum at the start and oversold at the end highlights a potential exhaustion of both bullish and bearish forces.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, indicating an increase in volatility. The price closed below the lower band, confirming a bearish signal. The width of the bands also suggests that the market is in a period of heightened uncertainty. A retest of the upper band is unlikely unless volume increases with a bullish reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish reversal, particularly in the 18:15 to 20:00 ET timeframe, where the total volume reached 74,995 units in a single candle. This volume confirmed the strength of the bearish move. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, indicating significant participation. The divergence between price and volume in the final hours suggests some exhaustion among sellers, which may support a near-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 1580.5 to 1551.8, the 23.6% retracement level is at 1575.6, which appears to have provided resistance. The 38.2% and 61.8% levels lie at 1569.8 and 1564.0, respectively. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels from a larger swing (e.g., 1600 to 1540) indicate 1576.0 as a potential area of reaccumulation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed Fibonacci retracement levels and the bearish divergence in MACD and RSI, a potential backtesting strategy could explore using the 61.8% retracement level (1564.0) as a buy entry point, assuming a long entry at the next day’s open. A 3-day hold period with a sell exit could be tested to evaluate whether the market reacts favorably to these levels during consolidation. The strategy could be applied to the USDTARS pair itself or compared against other stablecoin/ARG-ARS pairs to evaluate relative strength.