Market Overview for Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) as of 2025-10-10

• Price dropped sharply after 16:30 ET, breaking below key support levels.
• Volatility surged as price dipped to a 24-hour low of 1470.0, then rebounded toward 1480.
• RSI and MACD indicate bearish momentum with no sign of overbought conditions.
• Bollinger Bands show price consolidation near the lower band, suggesting potential oversold conditions.
• Volume spiked during the selloff, confirming bearish sentiment.

Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) opened at 1519.9 on 2025-10-09 at 16:00 ET and fell sharply to a 24-hour low of 1470.0 before showing some recovery. At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10, the price closed at 1488.3 with a 24-hour high of 1528.0. Total volume was 3,586,430.0, while notional turnover came in at 5,473,440,680.0 (calculated using average price and volume).

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish breakdown below the 1518.2 level during the 16:30–18:30 ET window, forming a bearish engulfing pattern and a strong reversal signal. A key support level at 1470.0 was tested and partially held, with a rebound observed to the 1480.0–1481.0 range. A doji near the 1470.0 level suggests indecision. A further breakdown below 1470.0 may trigger deeper bearish moves into the 1450.0–1460.0 zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have diverged significantly, with the 50-period line remaining above the 20-period line, indicating a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below the 200-period MA, suggesting a medium-term bearish trend, with price trading below both.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD has remained negative throughout the 24-hour period, confirming bearish momentum, with a recent slight divergence suggesting potential exhaustion. RSI has spent most of the period in oversold territory between 25–30, indicating potential for a short-term bounce but not a reversal. A close above 50 on RSI would be a positive signal, though unlikely in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly during the selloff, indicating increased volatility. Price has remained near the lower band for much of the 24-hour period, suggesting overbought conditions. A strong rebound to the middle band (1480.0–1485.0 range) may be likely, especially if the RSI confirms the move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged sharply during the 18:30–19:30 ET window as price dropped below 1500.0 and into the 1470.0–1480.0 range. Notional turnover spiked to over 2.5 billion during this period, confirming the bearish momentum. Volume has since moderated, suggesting potential exhaustion of the short-term selloff. Divergence between volume and price action is minimal, indicating alignment in bearish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing low (1470.0) and the earlier high (1528.0), the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels sit near 1492.0 and 1503.0. Price has tested the 61.8% level and failed to hold, reinforcing bearish bias. The next key support is at 1470.0, and a break below that may target 1450.0 on the next 61.8% leg down.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves using a short-term MACD crossover on the 15-minute chart as a trigger for a sell signal, confirmed by a break of key support levels on the 1-hour chart. This aligns with the bearish momentum observed in the 24-hour period. Given the current RSI and MACD readings, as well as the volume confirmation during the selloff, this strategy appears to have strong potential for short-term bearish trades. However, caution is warranted as the price has shown signs of consolidation near 1470.0, and a rebound above this level could invalidate the short-term bearish signal.