Market Overview for Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) on 2025-10-06

• Price traded within a narrow range during the day, with a high of 1,530.0 and a low of 1,510.1.
• A bullish breakout attempt formed at 1,529.0 was rejected, confirming 1,528.9 as a key resistance.
• Late-day selling pressure drove a 24-hour close near 1,517.6, down from 1,526.3 at the start.
• Volume remained steady, with no significant divergence between price and turnover.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions in the early session, followed by a bearish divergence in the afternoon.

Market Overview

Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) opened at 1,526.3 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 1,530.0 before closing at 1,517.6 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded as low as 1,510.1 during the session. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 1,892,821.0 units, with notional turnover reaching 2.86 billion ARS.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours displayed a bearish consolidation pattern, with key resistance at 1,528.9 and support at 1,525.0. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 02:00 and 02:15 ET, confirming downward pressure. A doji at 07:45 ET suggested indecision. A larger bearish engulfing pattern emerged between 13:00 and 13:15 ET, signaling a probable continuation of the downtrend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below key price levels late in the session, indicating bearish momentum. The 50-period MA on the daily chart held near 1,527.5, suggesting resistance to further upside in the coming days.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed bearish divergence in the afternoon, with price making higher lows while the MACD made lower lows. RSI peaked at 75 in the early session, indicating overbought conditions, but declined sharply to the 45–50 range by 14:00 ET. This suggests exhaustion in the bullish momentum and a possible continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the late afternoon as price broke below the lower Bollinger Band, reaching as low as 1,510.1. This break below the 2σ band confirmed a short-term bearish shift. Price remained below the 20-period MA for much of the session, indicating weakening trend strength.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained relatively consistent throughout the session, with no large spikes to confirm either strong bullish or bearish moves. The largest 15-minute turnover occurred at 16:00 ET, as price broke below 1,517.6. No material divergence was observed between volume and price, suggesting that the downtrend was broadly supported.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 1,510.1–1,530.0 move was at 1,521.6, which acted as a temporary support but was decisively broken by 13:00 ET. The 50% level at 1,520.0 was also rejected, confirming a bearish bias. Daily-level retracements showed the 61.8% level at 1,514.0 as a potential near-term support for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position when price breaks below the 1,528.9 resistance level with confirmation by the 20-period MA, and holding until the price reaches the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1,514.0 or until a bullish reversal pattern forms. This approach would aim to capture the continuation of the bearish trend while limiting risk with a tight stop above 1,528.9. The use of RSI divergence as an exit signal could further optimize the strategy.