Market Overview for Tether/Argentine Peso (USDTARS) on 2025-09-25

• Price action opened at 1400.5 and closed near 1399.8 with a range of 1405.1 to 1380.3
• Momentum shifted from bearish early on to mixed with RSI nearing overbought and oversold
• Volatility spiked during the 13:15–13:30 ET window, with a drop of -7.7% in 15-minute price
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before a sharp expansion, indicating potential turning points
• Volume surged over 130k during the 14:30–14:45 ET session, correlating with a sharp reversal

The Tether/Argentine Peso pair (USDTARS) opened at 1400.5 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1399.8 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, with a daily high of 1405.1 and a low of 1380.3. The 24-hour volume totaled 1,312,790 and notional turnover amounted to approximately USD 1,873,064,370 (based on volume × average price).

Structure & Formations

The price displayed a key support at 1395.0, where it rebounded twice in the afternoon, and a resistance near 1403.0, which failed to hold during the late session. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 14:00–14:15 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji at 13:30–13:45 ET hinted at indecision during a critical pullback.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed below the 50-period SMA, suggesting bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the price ended below the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs, indicating a weak positioning. This suggests that a breakdown below 1390 could target the next support level near 1385.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover in the afternoon, with the histogram shrinking as the bearish pressure waned. RSI reached overbought levels (70+) at 14:30–15:00 ET, followed by a sharp decline toward oversold territory (30–). The rapid swing indicates a volatile momentum phase with potential for consolidation or reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted during the overnight hours, signaling low volatility and a potential breakout. By 14:15 ET, the price broke out below the lower band, confirming increased bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked above 130,000 at 14:30–14:45 ET, coinciding with a 1.6% drop in price, validating the move. However, volume began to decline after 16:00 ET, despite a further drop in price, indicating a possible divergence that could signal a short-term bottom.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 15-minute chart showed a key swing high at 1408.7 and a low at 1380.3. The 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels fell at 1403.2 and 1395.7, respectively. Price found support near 1395.0, aligning with the 61.8% level and potentially signaling a short-term floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy relies on detecting overbought RSI levels and bearish MACD crossovers to enter short positions, with a stop loss placed above the 20-period SMA and a target at the next Fibonacci level. This strategy appeared effective during the 14:00–15:00 ET window, where RSI reached overbought conditions and the MACD confirmed a bearish crossover. A stop above 1403 would have limited exposure to the afternoon bounce, while the 1395 level served as a reasonable target. The high volume and confirmed patterns on the 15-minute timeframe suggest a viable approach for short-term traders in volatile environments.