Market Overview: Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) – October 14, 2025

• Price opened at $0.02419 and closed at $0.02240 after a 24-hour range between $0.02458 and $0.02127
• A bearish divergence in price and volume was observed in the final 48 hours of the session
• The asset experienced a 7.6% decline in the last 15 hours amid increasing bearish momentum
• Volatility expanded as price broke below key support levels around $0.02430 and $0.02400
• A potential continuation pattern emerged following the breakdown, with the 61.8% Fib level at $0.02270 in focus

Price and Volume Summary

At 12:00 ET, Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) opened at $0.02419 and closed at $0.02240, with a high of $0.02458 and a low of $0.02127 during the past 24 hours. The pair traded on a total volume of approximately 102.9 million units, with a notional turnover of $2.49 million. The session was marked by a sharp selloff after 10 PM ET on October 13, with a breakdown below key support levels that accelerated into the early morning session.

Structure and Key Levels

Price formed a bearish continuation pattern after breaking below the $0.02430 support level around 8:30 PM ET, followed by a secondary breakdown at $0.02400 and $0.02370. A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 10:15 PM ET, confirming the shift in sentiment. Key resistance appears to be clustered between $0.02460 and $0.02490, while immediate support is forming around $0.02260, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing at $0.02270 in play.

Volatility and Momentum Divergence

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly from 11 PM ET through midnight as price dropped below the lower band, indicating high volatility and bearish pressure. The RSI moved into oversold territory by 2:30 AM, though it failed to trigger a meaningful bounce, suggesting exhaustion on the buy side. Volume increased sharply during the sell-off, with a notable divergence between falling price and rising turnover, which is typically bearish for continuation scenarios.

MACD and Momentum Analysis

Although MACD data could not be retrieved for TSTUSDT due to technical constraints, the 15-minute candle action indicates a clear bearish momentum shift. The MACD histogram is likely to have turned negative and crossed below the signal line, reinforcing the downtrend. A bearish crossover between the 20 and 50-period moving averages has also occurred, aligning with the price breakdown.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the absence of direct MACD data, the backtest could be manually constructed by referencing the confirmed death-cross event on the 15-minute timeframe—when the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA during the session. This would have generated a sell signal around 9:30 PM ET on October 13. A stop-loss placed above the recent high of $0.02458 would have limited exposure to a 6.5% move. The exit could be triggered either by the RSI hitting oversold territory or upon reaching a key support level such as $0.02260. This approach would validate whether the technical divergence in the latter part of the session could be profitably exploited.