Market Overview for Test/Tether (TSTUSDT)

• Price declined from $0.0292 to $0.0269 amid heavy selling pressure in the last 24 hours.
• Key support at $0.0271–$0.0273 tested multiple times, with mixed follow-through.
• Volume surged in the final 4 hours, suggesting potential exhaustion or reversal.
• RSI in oversold territory at 28.4, suggesting potential rebound, but trend remains bearish.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, indicating heightened volatility and risk of bounce or breakdown.

Over the last 24 hours, Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) opened at $0.02845 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.02922, and a low of $0.02657, before closing at $0.02695 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-14. The total trading volume amounted to 43,222,945.3 units, and the turnover was approximately $1,157,561.70, reflecting heightened trading interest in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick chart reveals a bearish trend with a strong low at $0.02657 on the last 15-minute candle of the day. A series of lower highs and lower lows since mid-day indicates a breakdown in bullish momentum. Notably, a bearish engulfing pattern appeared at $0.0275–$0.0271 in the afternoon, and a shooting star formed near the high of $0.02922 during the morning session. These patterns signal potential exhaustion in buying pressure. Key support levels were identified at $0.0271 and $0.0269, while resistance sits at $0.0281 and $0.0285, with the latter showing repeated rejection.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA sits at $0.0280 and the 50-period MA at $0.0281, with price currently well below both. On a daily chart, the 50-period MA is at $0.0286 and the 200-period MA at $0.0283, with price also sitting beneath both. This suggests bearish momentum and a possible continuation of the downtrend in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early afternoon, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI currently stands at 28.4, indicating oversold conditions, though this is not a guaranteed reversal signal. Momentum has weakened dramatically over the last 4 hours, with a bearish divergence forming between price and RSI. A failure to break above $0.0275 and hold could see a further pullback toward the key $0.0265–$0.0269 support zone.

Bollinger Bands

Price closed near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting that volatility remains elevated. The bands have widened since mid-day, indicating an expansion in price swings. A rebound off the lower band could occur, but a break below the $0.0265 level would confirm a new low, with the next target likely the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.0262.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the final 4 hours, particularly after 14:00 ET, with the largest single 15-minute candle (at $0.02693) trading over 7.7 million units. However, notional turnover was muted during this period, indicating a possible divergence between price and volume. This could suggest forced liquidation or stop-loss activity, increasing the risk of further downside in the short term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $0.0292 to $0.0269, the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.0281, and the 61.8% retracement is at $0.0275. Both levels have shown resistance in the past and could act as potential bounce zones. A break of $0.0269 would target the 78.6% retracement at $0.0262, a critical psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern followed by a close below the 20-period MA, with a stop above the 50-period MA. A 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio would aim for a target at $0.0265 with a stop at $0.0277. This strategy could be refined further with filters such as RSI oversold levels and volume confirmation, aligning well with the observed patterns in the current data.