Market Overview: Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

• Price of Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) declined from 0.0293 to 0.02844, forming a bearish trend with heavy selling near 0.0290.
• RSI and MACD both signaled bearish momentum with RSI below 40 and MACD in negative territory.
• Volatility expanded briefly during late-night trading, reaching a high of 0.03015 before retracing.
• Volume surged during the bearish breakdown from 0.0293 to 0.0285, confirming the move.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential short-term support at 0.0284 and 0.0282.

At 12:00 ET − 1 on 2025-09-12, TSTUSDT opened at 0.02866 and traded in a bearish range, peaking at 0.03015 and hitting a low of 0.02793 before settling at 0.02845 at 12:00 ET. The total volume over 24 hours was 82,192,894.6 and the notional turnover was approximately 2,353,302,448.9 units.

Structure & Formations

The price of TSTUSDT exhibited a distinct bearish bias throughout the 24-hour period, with key support levels forming at 0.02845 and 0.0282. A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged late at night around 0.0293 to 0.0285, signaling a strong shift in sentiment. A doji formed near 0.02895, suggesting indecision before the final leg of the decline. Resistance levels at 0.0290 and 0.0293 were tested multiple times but failed to hold, indicating that bullish momentum is weak.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a clear bearish crossover, with the 20SMA falling below the 50SMA. On the daily timeframe, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are aligned in a descending order, reinforcing the bearish trend. The price closed below all three, indicating a potential continuation of the downward move.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line in the early hours of the morning, confirming a bearish momentum shift. The RSI dropped below 40, entering oversold territory for a short period, which is typically a sign of potential reversal, though in a bearish context, it can also signal exhaustion. A divergence between price and RSI was observed as price continued to drop while RSI flattened, suggesting that the bears may be losing steam temporarily.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the late-night hours, pushing the price to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands at 0.03015, followed by a sharp retrace to the lower band near 0.0285. This contraction and expansion of the bands indicate a period of consolidation followed by a breakout. The price closed near the lower band, suggesting a high probability of further downward movement in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the bearish breakdown from 0.0293 to 0.0285, confirming the move. Turnover also increased in this period, indicating a large notional value transacted at the lower end of the range. However, volume declined in the early morning hours, coinciding with a flattening of price movement, suggesting a potential short-term pause in the bearish momentum. There was no clear divergence between price and volume, which supports the integrity of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing high of 0.03015 and the low at 0.02793, key levels to watch are 0.0292 (38.2%), 0.0287 (50%), and 0.0282 (61.8%). The 61.8% level at 0.0282 appears to be a potential support zone. If the price breaks below this level, the next major support would likely be at 0.02793. On the 15-minute chart, retracements from the 0.02915–0.0293 swing indicate 0.02895 and 0.0288 as key levels to watch for possible bounces.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the bearish engulfing pattern and 15-minute RSI divergence as entry signals for short positions, with stops above the 0.0293 resistance level and targets at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.0282. A 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart can be used as a dynamic filter to confirm the trend. This approach leverages technical convergence of price patterns, momentum, and trend strength for a data-driven trade setup.