Market Overview for Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) - 2025-11-13

Summary
• Price opened at $0.01743 and closed near $0.01735 after a volatile 24-hour swing.
• Momentum shifted with RSI indicating overbought conditions in the late hours, then a pullback.
• Volume surged in early sessions before tapering, with a notable $5.8M turnover in the final candle.

TSTUSDT opened at $0.01743 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.01735 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-13. The price touched a high of $0.01769 and a low of $0.01709 during the session. Total volume traded over 24 hours was 17,951,610.1 units, while total turnover (notional value) was approximately $315.8 million.

Structure & Formations

TSTUSDT exhibited a bearish bias during the early hours, marked by a series of lower closes and bearish engulfing patterns from 19:00 to 20:30 ET. A key resistance level formed at $0.01749, which was briefly tested but failed to hold. A potential support level appeared at $0.01735, which held during two separate tests, suggesting a possible short-term floor for the pair. A doji formed at 00:15 ET, signaling indecision and hinting at a possible reversal or consolidation phase ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA during the early morning hours, indicating short-term bullish momentum. However, this was followed by a pullback that saw the 50-period MA crossing below the 20-period MA again, suggesting a return to bearish pressure. On the daily chart, TSTUSDT remains well above the 50, 100, and 200-day MAs, though the 50-day MA is beginning to flatten, which may signal a slowdown in the broader uptrend.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early hours, with the histogram narrowing through the morning before expanding negatively. This suggests fading bullish momentum and a strengthening bearish bias. RSI reached overbought territory around 03:45 ET, peaking at ~75, before retreating sharply to oversold levels in the early morning. This rapid shift in momentum indicates high volatility and potential for a mean reversion.

Bollinger Bands

Price action expanded to the upper Bollinger Band during the overnight hours, hitting $0.01769 before retracting back toward the middle band. The recent volatility expansion suggests traders may be anticipating a directional move. However, the inability to close above the upper band suggests resistance is holding, with the lower band at $0.01725 providing a potential floor.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume candle occurred at 01:45 ET, with over $1.09M in turnover. This aligns with a sharp rally in price from $0.01734 to $0.01748. Later in the session, volume waned despite continued price action, suggesting fading conviction. A divergence between price and volume was observed during the 06:00–08:00 ET period, where price remained stable but volume declined sharply. This could hint at weakening bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $0.01709 to $0.01769, the pair has retraced to the 61.8% level (~$0.01743) before consolidating. The 38.2% retracement level (~$0.01736) appears to be acting as a near-term support. If the pair breaks below $0.01735, the 50% level (~$0.01738) may offer limited support before the 23.6% level at $0.01743 becomes a key resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent price behavior of TSTUSDT, including sharp overbought RSI readings and divergent volume patterns, could provide a suitable test case for the described backtest strategy. Applying a RSI-based mean-reversion approach could help quantify the effectiveness of exiting trades based on RSI thresholds and volume dynamics. For TSTUSDT, testing the strategy with a 14-period RSI overbought trigger (RSI > 70) and a sell signal when RSI drops below 60 could yield insights into the pair’s volatility profile and trader sentiment. Further refinement could include volume-based confirmation for trade entries and exits.