Market Overview for Test/Tether (TSTUSDT): 2025-10-30 12:00 ET

• Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) declined over 24 hours, closing near session lows amid heavy selling.
• A sharp bearish reversal emerged in early ET hours, followed by consolidation toward the lower end of the range.
• Volume surged during the midday downturn but waned afterward, suggesting exhausted bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD signaled weakening bullish momentum, with RSI near oversold territory.
• Bollinger Bands contracted near session close, hinting at potential for a breakout or consolidation.

At 12:00 ET on October 30, 2025, Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) opened at $0.01889, reached a high of $0.01917, and closed at $0.01737, with a low of $0.01714. Total traded volume was 138,429,150.40 and notional turnover (amount) was 18,692.83. Price action was bearish, with a large early sell-off followed by sideways trading.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a distinct bearish reversal pattern in the early hours of the session, with a strong red candle engulfing the previous session’s high. Key support levels emerged near $0.0185 and $0.0175, where the price consolidated for extended periods. Resistance levels were noted near $0.0189 and $0.0191, where repeated rejections occurred. A long lower wick and tight consolidation near the close indicate buyers may be testing support levels, but bearish sentiment remains intact.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bearish crossover early in the session, confirming the shift in trend. The 50-period line remained above the 20-period line, reinforcing the downward bias. Longer-term averages (100/200) were not calculated in this 24-hour period due to the limited data scope, but the near-term bias remains bearish. The price remained well below the 50-period line for most of the session, indicating continued bearish control.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below zero and remained in negative territory for the majority of the session, with a bearish histogram reflecting sustained selling pressure. RSI declined from around 50 early in the session to 30 by close, signaling oversold conditions. While this can indicate a potential bounce, the lack of accompanying bullish volume or reversal patterns suggests a cautious approach. The combination of bearish MACD and oversold RSI implies a potential short-term rebound may occur, but a reversal is unlikely without a strong bullish candlestick.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands reflected a clear downtrend, with price staying near the lower band for much of the session. The bands narrowed slightly in the final hours, indicating a potential period of consolidation or a setup for a breakout. If the price remains near the lower band without breaking above the middle band, bearish pressure could persist. Conversely, a break above the middle band could signal a short-term countertrend rally.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early bearish reversal, with a large candle near 18:45 ET showing the highest volume and largest price drop of the session. This was followed by a significant volume drop, indicating exhausted selling pressure. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, with a sharp decline after the mid-session move. Divergence between price and volume suggests the move may be nearing a pause or reversal, though confirmation will require a bullish reversal candle.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the main 15-minute bearish leg from $0.01917 to $0.01714, price found support at the 61.8% level (~$0.0179) before retreating. A potential bounce could target the 38.2% level (~$0.0185), though given the strong bearish sentiment, a retest of the $0.01714 low appears more likely. The 50% level (~$0.0181) acted as a minor resistance during the consolidation phase, suggesting it could become a key level if the price retraces.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the identified bearish reversal pattern, oversold RSI, and exhaustion in volume, a potential short-selling strategy could be backtested using a 1-day sell signal on bearish engulfing patterns. However, in the case of the requested asset (HOLD.P), the backtest could not proceed due to missing data. The same logic could be applied to TSTUSDT using the available candlestick data. For a more robust test, a dataset covering multiple bearish reversal events should be used, with stop-loss placed above the engulfing pattern’s high and take-profit near the next Fibonacci support level. This would help quantify the strategy's performance in live market conditions.