Market Overview for Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) - 2025-10-26

• Price tested key resistance at 0.0202–0.0204 before retreating
• RSI shows overbought conditions near 70 at session peak
• Volatility spiked during 19:45–20:00 ET with 0.0203 high
• Volume and turnover increased during bullish breakouts
• 15-minute chart forms bearish divergence after initial rally

Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) opened at 0.02007 on 2025-10-25 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.02042, and closed at 0.02009 on 2025-10-26 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 11,648,656.9, and total turnover was approximately 233.44.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows multiple attempts to break above the 0.0202–0.0204 resistance range, which coincided with prior high-volume zones. A bullish breakout candle was formed at 19:45 ET with a high of 0.02042 and a close at 0.0203, followed by a bearish continuation with a close at 0.02009, indicating potential rejection. A key support level appears at 0.02005, where price has bounced multiple times during the session. Notable candlestick patterns include a bearish harami at 20:30–21:00 ET and a potential bearish engulfing pattern after the 19:45 high.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period moving average (MA) and 50-period MA both crossed above the price at the peak near 0.0203, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. However, they have since rolled back down, crossing below the 0.0201 level by the close. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA continues to sit above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting a longer-term bullish trend, though recent 15-minute momentum has weakened.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute RSI peaked above 70 at 0.02042, indicating overbought conditions and raising the likelihood of a short-term pullback. The MACD histogram showed a positive divergence early in the session, reinforcing the bullish breakout, but turned negative after 20:00 ET. A bearish crossover in the MACD line below the signal line further confirms bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Price initially expanded above the upper Bollinger Band during the 19:45–20:00 ET period, reaching 0.0203 before retracting sharply. The bands were relatively wide during this time, signaling increased volatility. After the peak, the bands began to contract as price settled closer to the middle band, suggesting a period of consolidation. Notional turnover spiked in line with price highs, confirming the breakout at 0.0203 but diverging afterward.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 19:45–20:00 ET period, with a single 15-minute bar recording 2.3 million volume units, which is significantly higher than the prior 4–5 hours. This high volume confirmed the bullish breakout but failed to sustain the rally. A bearish divergence appears in the volume profile after 20:15 ET, where lower highs are being made on lower volume, indicating waning bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from 0.02002 to 0.02042, the 38.2% retracement level aligns with 0.02027 and the 61.8% level with 0.02015. Price tested both levels before retreating toward the 0.02005 support, which coincided with the 23.6% retracement level. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level appears near 0.02013, and price has so far failed to break this level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the overbought RSI conditions and high-volume candles observed near 0.0203, a potential backtest hypothesis could involve testing a mean-reversion strategy using the RSI(14) oscillator. A buy signal would be triggered when the RSI crosses above 70, while a sell signal would follow at the next close. This approach could test whether overbought conditions lead to profitable short-term corrections in TSTUSDT’s price.