Market Overview for Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) – 2025-09-26

• Price declined from 0.03197 to 0.02991 over 24 hours amid heavy bearish momentum and declining volatility.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions late in the session, suggesting potential short-term rebounds.
• Volume surged at key support levels, indicating accumulation activity and possible near-term stabilization.
• Fibonacci 61.8% support was tested near 0.0307–0.0309, coinciding with a bullish reversal pattern.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before the 0.03018 low, hinting at a possible breakout from range-bound trading.

The pair TSTUSDT opened at 0.03167 at 12:00 ET−1 and reached a high of 0.03197 before closing at 0.02991 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was 0.03018. Total volume traded was 65,304,592.2 units, while notional turnover amounted to $2,047,454.38. The session was marked by strong bearish continuation and significant accumulation at key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Over the last 24 hours, TSTUSDT exhibited a bearish continuation with a strong break below the 0.03107–0.03126 consolidation zone. A bearish engulfing pattern at the 0.0313 level confirmed the shift in sentiment, followed by a long lower shadow at 0.03018 indicating a potential short-term bounce. A doji formed at 0.03018, suggesting indecision and a possible reversal. Key support levels include 0.0306–0.0307 (Fib 61.8%) and 0.03018–0.0302 (Fib 78.6%). Resistance to watch includes 0.0304 and 0.0309.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing a short-term bearish bias. The 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period MA earlier in the session, signaling a deeper bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA remains a critical reference point for long-term positioning.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory with a bearish crossover late in the session, reinforcing the downtrend. The RSI hit oversold levels below 30 for the first time in several hours at 0.03018, suggesting a possible bounce. However, the RSI failed to break above 40 after the bounce, indicating weak bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Price spent the last three hours of the session inside a tightening Bollinger Band contraction, ending with a break to the downside at 0.03018. The lower band reached 0.03004–0.03010 during the contraction, which aligns with the 0.03018 low. This suggests a high-probability continuation move could follow, with a potential rebound if price tests the lower band again.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was elevated at key support levels, particularly at 0.0307 and 0.03018, suggesting accumulation activity. Notional turnover reached a high of $75,400 at 0.0307, followed by a sharp drop to $32,100 at 0.03018. The divergence between volume and price during the 0.0307–0.03018 leg hints at potential exhaustion of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.03197–0.03018 swing, key levels include 0.03164 (38.2%), 0.03133 (50%), and 0.0307–0.0309 (61.8%). The 61.8% level was tested and held as a support zone during the session. A break below 0.0307 would confirm a deeper decline toward 0.0304 (78.6%) and potentially the 0.03018 (88.6%) level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy suggests entering a long position upon a bullish divergence in RSI and a close above the 20-period moving average, targeting a 3–5% rebound with a stop-loss at the 20-period MA. This aligns with the recent oversold RSI and potential Bollinger Band breakout at 0.03018. The strategy assumes accumulation at key support levels and anticipates a short-term reversal after the 24-hour bearish exhaustion.