Market Overview for Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) as of 2025-09-20

• Price surged 25.3% in the 24 hours to $0.04363, closing near session highs after a volatile overnight rebound.
• Volume spiked during the Asian session, peaking at 109.7M TST, with $4.85B notional turnover suggesting strong short-term demand.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 05:00 ET, confirming a breakout from 0.0440–0.0443 support.
• RSI entered overbought territory after the 05:00 ET rally, hinting at potential profit-taking or consolidation.
• Volatility expanded after 03:15 ET, with price moving between 0.043 and 0.048 in a high-impact 3-hour window.

Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) opened at $0.04427 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.04363 the following day. The 24-hour high was $0.05283, low $0.04264, and total volume reached 482.3M TST, with $21.6B in turnover.

The price structure formed a sharp V-shaped recovery starting at 03:15 ET, with a key support level at 0.04404 and resistance near 0.04766. A large bullish engulfing candle emerged at 05:15 ET, signaling a shift in momentum. The 20-period 15-minute moving average crossed above the 50-period line during the Asian session, indicating a short-term upward bias.

On the 15-minute MACD, the line crossed above the signal line at 05:15 ET, confirming the bullish breakout. RSI hit 65–70, suggesting overbought conditions and the potential for a near-term pullback. Bollinger Bands expanded during the Asian and European sessions, with price closing near the upper band, indicating heightened volatility.

Volume spiked most notably at 05:15 ET and again at 09:00 ET, aligning with price surges. Turnover also surged during these intervals, validating the strength of the rally. Divergences between price and volume were minimal, suggesting no significant bearish counterpressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when the 15-minute 20-period moving average crosses above the 50-period line, with a stop-loss placed below the nearest Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level. A take-profit target is set at the 61.8% retracement level of the prior 15-minute swing. This aligns with the recent breakout at 0.04404 and potential retracement targets near 0.0457 and 0.0466. Given the current RSI and MACD conditions, the strategy would have triggered entry near 05:15 ET, with a high probability of catching the 05:15–09:00 ET rally. Further refinement could include time-weighted volume triggers to filter out false signals.