Market Overview for Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) – 2025-09-18

• TSTUSDT rallied sharply from 0.04303 to 0.05412 before retracing to 0.05006, signaling potential overbought conditions.
• Volatility surged during the morning session, with the 24-hour high-to-low range expanding to 26.5%.
• A bearish divergence appears in the RSI as price rose while momentum declined.
• Bollinger Bands contracted briefly during the overnight consolidation, hinting at a potential breakout.
• Volume and turnover were highest during the 0.04609–0.05412 rally, confirming strong bullish participation.

24-Hour Price Movement

Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) opened at 0.04303 on 2025-09-18 and traded within a 24-hour range of 0.04223 to 0.05412, closing at 0.05006 at 12:00 ET. The total volume for the 24-hour window was 1,119,683,750 (cumulative across all candles), with a notional turnover of approximately $45,950,000 (assuming $1 = 1 TSTUSDT). Price action showed a sharp bullish thrust followed by consolidation and a pullback.

Structure & Formations

The rally from 0.04609 to 0.05412 formed a strong bullish flag pattern, with a subsequent bearish pennant suggesting consolidation before a potential breakdown. Notable support levels are at 0.0480 (prior low), 0.0475 (Fib 61.8% retracement), and 0.0470 (initial support). Resistance is now at 0.05093 (recent high), with 0.05246 and 0.05388 as secondary levels. A long lower shadow at 0.048006 suggests bearish rejection, while a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.0493–0.05006 signals potential downward continuation.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line earlier in the day, confirming the short-term bullish trend before the pullback. The daily MA structure shows the 50-day line (0.0475) and 200-day line (0.0448) currently acting as supports, while the 100-day line at 0.0469 is a critical level to watch. RSI hit 68 during the rally, indicating overbought conditions, but has since cooled to 49, suggesting neutral momentum. MACD lines showed a bullish crossover during the surge but are now flattening, signaling a potential shift in momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 0.04609–0.05412 rally, with price testing the upper band at 0.05412. A brief contraction occurred during the overnight consolidation phase, suggesting a possible breakout. Price has since retraced toward the middle band at 0.05006, currently within the 1σ range. The bands have widened again during the afternoon, reflecting renewed volatility as the market digests the prior highs.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the early-morning rally and again in the afternoon as price tested key resistances and supports. Notional turnover reached a 24-hour high of approximately $1,845,000 during the 0.05207–0.05412 session. A divergence appears between price and volume during the 0.05412–0.048006 correction, with volume declining as the price dropped, suggesting bearish exhaustion or lack of buying interest at higher levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 0.04609–0.05412 swing, the 38.2% retracement at 0.04981 and 61.8% at 0.04750 were both tested. Price failed to hold 0.04981 and broke down to 0.048006, confirming 0.04750 as the next key level. The daily move from 0.04303 to 0.05412 shows the 61.8% retracement at 0.04685 is also being tested now. These levels are likely to influence near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described leverages the key Fibonacci and MA levels identified in the analysis. A potential long entry could be placed on a bullish breakout above 0.04750 with a stop at 0.04685, targeting 0.0493–0.05093 as profit-taking levels. Conversely, a short position may be considered upon a close below 0.04750 with a stop above 0.048006. The strategy assumes continued volatility and utilizes RSI and MACD to confirm momentum shifts at critical levels.