Market Overview for Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) - 2025-09-15 12:00 ET

• Price action shows a strong bearish reversal post-noon ET, with key support tested by the close.
• Volatility surged during the afternoon rally, but bearish momentum resurged overnight.
• Overbought RSI conditions were followed by bearish divergence, signaling potential exhaustion in upward moves.
• A large-volume breakdown candle at the 15-minute chart level confirmed bearish bias.
• Bollinger Bands constricted before the breakout, suggesting increased likelihood of directional move.

At 12:00 ET on September 15, 2025, Test/Tether (TSTUSDT) opened at 0.02709, reaching a high of 0.03063 before settling at 0.02736. The 24-hour session saw a low of 0.02612 and closed at 0.02736. Total trading volume was 168,088,583.9 units with a notional turnover of approximately $4,634,488 (based on average price).

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a series of bearish reversal patterns, including a long lower shadow and a bearish engulfing pattern following a brief rally in the early afternoon. A key support level at 0.0268–0.027 was tested and held through the overnight session, while resistance clustered around 0.0275–0.0278 failed to hold, indicating bearish control. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the 0.02612 low to the 0.02828 high was near 0.0274, where the price showed hesitation before resuming downward.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was at 0.0271, with the price closing slightly above it. However, the 200-period MA at 0.0274 acted as a near-term resistance, suggesting a potential retest or break could be in play.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish reversal patterns and confirmation from volume, a backtest strategy could include a short entry on the 15-minute close at 0.02736, targeting 0.0268 as initial support and 0.0264 as a secondary target. A stop loss above 0.0275–0.0276 would help manage downside risk. The RSI divergence and volume confirmation from the breakdown candle further support the short bias, making this a viable strategy for testing in historical data.