Market Overview for Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) – October 28, 2025

• LUNAUSDT traded lower in a tight range, closing near session low amid subdued momentum and declining volume after a morning rally.
• A bearish 15-minute engulfing pattern formed mid-session, with price failing to retest the high, suggesting short-term exhaustion.
• RSI entered oversold territory near session close, while Bollinger Bands showed moderate contraction, hinting at potential consolidation.
• Volume spiked during the morning push toward 0.1013 but declined sharply in the afternoon, signaling waning buyer interest.

Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at 0.0993 on October 27 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.1013, and a low of 0.0979 before closing at 0.0997 on October 28. Total 24-hour volume was 8,817,664.95, and notional turnover amounted to 878,417.19. Price action was characterized by a morning rally followed by a consolidation and pullback, with key support at 0.0985 and resistance at 0.1008.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure revealed a strong bearish bias following the morning high at 0.1013, with a notable 15-minute engulfing pattern forming at 18:30–19:00 ET. Price failed to reclaim the 0.1013 level afterward, reinforcing bearish sentiment. A doji formed at 0.0985 near the session’s low, indicating a potential short-term support area.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly, with the 20SMA below the 50SMA, signaling a bearish bias. The 50-period MA was trading at 0.0995, offering a potential pivot point for near-term direction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below zero mid-session, reflecting bearish momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory near 0.0985, suggesting short-term support. However, RSI did not show strong divergence, indicating caution for any immediate reversal attempt.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction as the session progressed, with price hovering near the lower band in the afternoon, suggesting potential range-bound trading. A rebound above the 0.1008 mid-band level could signal a shift in sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning rally to 0.1013, with a large 15-minute candle showing 339,230.27 volume. However, volume dropped significantly in the afternoon, with the largest decline observed after 22:00 ET. This divergence between price and volume highlights weakening buying pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 0.0985–0.1013 swing produced a 38.2% retracement at 0.1001 and a 61.8% retracement at 0.0993. Price tested the 0.0993 level twice, reinforcing its role as a key support area. A close above 0.1001 may trigger retests of the 0.1008 resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the potential for an RSI-based strategy, we propose using the standard 14-period RSI and entering a long position when RSI crosses above 70 (overbought). This approach assumes that overbought conditions signal strong momentum that could be extended. For exits, we propose closing the position when RSI falls below 50, indicating a loss of upward momentum. The strategy would be tested on daily close prices for LUNAUSDT between January 1, 2022, and October 28, 2025. To manage risk, we recommend a 10% trailing stop-loss and a maximum holding period of 14 days.