Market Overview: Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) – October 15, 2025

• Price action remained range-bound between $0.1007 and $0.1029, with a late consolidation toward the lower end of the 24-hour range.
• Volatility increased during the early part of the session, followed by a gradual decline in intensity and turnover.
• No strong bullish or bearish candlestick patterns formed, but a bearish engulfing pattern emerged briefly around 19:45 ET.
• RSI and MACD showed no extreme readings, indicating moderate momentum and neutral sentiment.
• Bollinger Bands displayed a slight contraction, suggesting reduced volatility ahead of potential breakouts.

Market Overview

Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at $0.1001 on October 14 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.1029 by 16:30 ET before settling at $0.1019 by 12:00 ET on October 15. The 24-hour volume amounted to 1.98 million units, with a total notional turnover of $206,160. Price consolidation at the lower end of the range and a lack of decisive momentum suggest a period of indecision among traders.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed key support at $0.1013–$0.1017 and resistance at $0.1022–$0.1029. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 19:45 ET as the candle closed below the previous candle's body, indicating short-term bearish pressure. There were no strong doji or hammer patterns, but a tight cluster of candles between 23:00 ET and 00:15 ET on October 15 suggested a potential turning point.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were close together and trending slightly lower, indicating a neutral-to-bearish bias over the short term. The 50-period MA currently sits around $0.1020, while the 20-period MA is at $0.1019, suggesting price is trading slightly below the faster average. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) remain in a more extended timeframe and are not directly indicative of the 24-hour behavior.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained near the zero line throughout the 24-hour period, with the signal line tracking closely, showing no strong divergence. RSI oscillated between 50 and 60, indicating moderate momentum without signs of overbought or oversold conditions. This neutrality reflects the lack of directional bias and ongoing consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a slight contraction during the last half of the session, with price staying within the 1–2 standard deviation range. The upper band reached a peak of $0.1029 early in the session, while the lower band touched $0.1013 during the bearish consolidation phase. This narrowing of the bands may foreshadow an increase in volatility in the near term if the range is breached.

Volume & Turnover

Volume peaked at 449,880 units during a 15-minute window at 19:45 ET, coinciding with a bearish engulfing pattern and the lowest close of the session at $0.1008. Notional turnover spiked during this period as well, reaching $47,000, but declined afterward as the price retracted. Volume and price showed a degree of divergence in the latter part of the session, with volume declining even as price continued to drift lower.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key swing from $0.1001 (16:00 ET) to $0.1029 (16:30 ET), the 38.2% level is at $0.1016, and the 61.8% level is at $0.1023, which both saw price hovering around or briefly touching during the session. These levels could act as support/resistance in the short term, especially if the range tightens further.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of a bearish engulfing pattern observed at 19:45 ET and the relatively low RSI readings suggesting a balance of power between bulls and bears, a backtest strategy could be built around detecting similar patterns for short-term sell signals. A backtest would need a dataset of past Bullish and Bearish Engulfing patterns to determine whether similar setups have historically led to profitable exits after a 5-day holding period. The key is to assess whether such patterns correlate with measurable price corrections or trend resumptions, particularly in range-bound environments like the current one.