Market Overview for Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT): Bullish Momentum Gathers Steam

• Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) rose 0.69% over the past 24 hours, breaking above key resistance at 0.1535.
• Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern at 0.1523–0.1535, supported by high-volume confirmation.
• Volatility expanded after 0.1535, with RSI entering overbought territory and MACD crossing into positive territory.
• Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting increased buying pressure and a potential trend continuation.

Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at 0.1478 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.1582 before closing at 0.1567 as of 2025-09-18 12:00 ET. The total 24-hour volume was approximately 6,845,376.61, with a notional turnover of around 1,080,053.19 USD.

On the 15-minute OHLCV chart, LUNAUSDT displayed a strong upward bias, breaking through a critical resistance level at 0.1535 and forming a bullish engulfing pattern. Price action after 0.1535 showed increasing buying pressure, with candle bodies expanding and wicks shortening, indicating strong conviction. Key support appears to be at 0.1523, where a prior bearish reversal failed, while resistance may develop at 0.1559, the recent high before a pullback.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart suggest short-term bullish momentum. The 20-period MA is below the 50-period MA, with price holding above both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to be forming a base for an upward crossover with the 100-period MA, indicating potential medium-term strength. MACD lines have turned positive and show widening histograms, suggesting growing bullish momentum. RSI has moved into overbought territory above 65, which may indicate a short-term pullback could occur if volume declines.

Bollinger Bands have widened over the past 12 hours, reflecting increased volatility and a strong directional move. Price has spent much of the period near the upper band, suggesting a continuation of the trend is more probable than a reversal. The upper band currently sits at ~0.1583, offering a potential near-term target if volume sustains the move.

Volume and turnover saw a sharp increase after 0.1535, with over $1 million of turnover occurring between 0.1546 and 0.1559. This volume confirms the price action and supports the continuation hypothesis. A divergence between price and turnover may signal exhaustion, but at this stage, both metrics align in the bullish direction.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the recent 15-minute swing (0.1523–0.1582) suggest key support at 38.2% (~0.1555) and 61.8% (~0.1542), which have held in the past. Daily retracements from earlier swings indicate that 0.1550 and 0.1565 could be critical levels for further consolidation or breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves identifying a bullish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a breakout above the high of the engulfing candle and accompanied by above-average volume. The pattern aligns well with the recent move from 0.1523 to 0.1535. If applied, this strategy would suggest a long entry at 0.1535 or 0.1537 with a stop loss at the recent low of 0.1523 and a target at 0.1559. Given the current alignment of RSI, MACD, and volume, this setup is statistically robust in favoring continuation. A backtest of this strategy over a 200-candle window would likely show a positive expectancy, especially in a trending market like the current one.