Market Overview: Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) 24-Hour Summary

• LUNAUSDT opened at $0.1524 and closed at $0.1488, with a 24-hour high of $0.1545 and low of $0.1468.
• Price action showed bearish momentum after 22:00 ET, dropping below key support at $0.15.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish divergence in the late session, with RSI hitting oversold territory.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before a sharp decline, hinting at volatility expansion and bearish breakout.
• Notional turnover surged in the late ET hours, aligning with price weakness and signaling increased selling pressure.

Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at $0.1524 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1488 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.1545 and low of $0.1468 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 6.01 million LUNA, while notional turnover reached $894,531 USD, reflecting heightened market activity in the latter half of the period.

Structure & Formations

Price structure displayed a bearish bias after a late-night breakout below the key $0.15 support level. A long bearish candle formed around 09:00 ET, followed by a series of descending 15-minute closes, forming a bearish trendline. A potential double-bottom structure at $0.1468 was confirmed as the price bounced briefly but failed to reclaim the $0.15 level. A doji formed at $0.1517 (00:15 ET) indicating indecision, but was swiftly broken to the downside.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA and 50-period MA both crossed below key support levels after 22:00 ET, confirming a bearish crossover. The 50-period MA on the daily chart was at $0.1530, and the 200-period MA sat at $0.1545—indicating that current price is trading well below long-term averages, suggesting bearish exhaustion is likely in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after 22:00 ET and remained bearish throughout the session, with a strong bearish crossover on the 15-minute chart around 08:00 ET. RSI dropped below 30 by 09:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a significant rebound. This suggests bearish momentum remains intact and could continue until a strong reversal candle forms.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands constricted between 01:00 and 08:00 ET, forming a period of low volatility, followed by a sharp expansion as price broke below the lower band at $0.1476. Price has remained below the lower band since the 09:00 ET break, indicating strong bearish control. This setup suggests a potential retest of the lower band as support in the next 24 hours, though a break below could accelerate the decline further.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the early morning hours of 2025-09-15, coinciding with the sharp drop in price. The notional turnover mirrored this, peaking at over $140,000 during the 08:15 ET candle as price fell from $0.1502 to $0.1490. A divergence between rising volume and falling price suggests increased bearish conviction. However, volume declined significantly in the late morning hours, which may signal a potential short-term pause in the downward trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the high of $0.1545 to the low of $0.1468 showed a strong 61.8% retracement level at $0.1516, which was briefly tested twice but rejected. The 38.2% level at $0.1506 also failed to hold, indicating strong bearish pressure. If the price fails to reclaim $0.1533 (a key 50% retracement level), the pair could test the 78.6% level at $0.1490 next.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a short bias upon a confirmed break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, supported by bearish MACD and RSI divergence. Stop-loss placement could be set slightly above the 50% retracement level at $0.1533, with a target near $0.1476, the 78.6% level. The strategy would be more effective during periods of high volatility and increased volume, as observed in the 24-hour timeframe. This setup aligns with the recent bearish momentum and provides a data-driven approach to managing risk and capturing directional bias.