Market Overview for Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) – 24-Hour Summary (10/4/2025)

• Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) traded lower over the last 24 hours, closing near intraday lows.
• Price dipped below key 15-minute support levels, with bearish momentum visible in RSI.
• Volatility expanded during the overnight session, with increased turnover confirming weakness.
• A potential reversal pattern emerged near 0.1425–0.1430 as price tested Fibonacci 38.2% support.
• Divergence between price and volume suggests potential near-term indecision.

Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at 0.1440 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, peaked at 0.1462, and closed at 0.1419 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The pair traded within a bearish range, with total trading volume of 5,561,028.07 and notional turnover of approximately $784,919.94 over the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart revealed a distinct bearish bias, with a breakdown below key horizontal support at 0.1440. This level previously acted as a magnet for buyers but failed to hold, indicating a loss of bullish conviction. A potential hammer pattern formed near 0.1425–0.1430, which could signal short-term stabilization. However, bearish engulfing patterns were evident in the overnight session as price moved below 0.1430 toward 0.1414, suggesting ongoing selling pressure.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 0.1440 level, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, price continues below the 50, 100, and 200-day EMA, with the 200-day line acting as a key long-term psychological level at ~0.1435. A close below this could trigger further momentum to the 0.1410–0.1400 range.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has fallen below 30 into oversold territory, though without a convincing divergence or bullish reversal, this may not be a strong buying signal. The MACD (12,26,9) remains bearish, with the histogram showing consistent negative momentum. This suggests that while the pair is oversold, the overall trend remains downward, and a reversal may require a strong bullish catalyst.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the overnight hours between 02:00 and 06:00 ET, with several 15-minute candles recording over 200,000 contracts traded. The most notable was at 05:30 ET, with 212,770.45 volume and a turnover of ~$30,490. However, price failed to respond with a meaningful reversal, suggesting that the volume was bearish in nature. A divergence between price and volume during the 08:00–10:00 ET window also points to weakening bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the most recent swing high (0.1462) and low (0.1414), the key levels to watch include 0.1425 (38.2%), 0.1437 (50%), and 0.1445 (61.8%). Price is currently consolidating near 0.1425, a level that could either act as a magnet for buyers or continue to break down toward 0.1414 if the trend persists. A retest of 0.1430–0.1435 may provide critical clues about the pair’s near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable backtesting strategy for LUNAUSDT may involve a combination of RSI divergence and Fibonacci support levels. For example, entering a long position on a bullish divergence between RSI and price at key Fibonacci levels (e.g., 38.2% or 50%) could offer a risk/reward profile with a stop below the next Fibonacci level. Given the current bearish momentum, this approach should be tested against historical data to ensure it is adaptive to volatile swings and divergent volume patterns.