Market Overview: Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) 24-Hour Price Action and Momentum

• Price drifted down 0.65% from 0.1563 to 0.1547, with bearish momentum increasing in afternoon ET.
• RSI moved into oversold territory by 16:00 ET, but volume failed to confirm a short-term reversal.
• Bollinger Bands tightened in early hours before a sharp expansion during the 06:00–07:00 ET bullish rally.
• A key support level at 0.1550 was tested and held, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming near 0.1563.

Price Action Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-20, Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at 0.1563 and reached an intraday high of 0.1585 before declining sharply in the late AM and afternoon hours. The 24-hour session closed at 0.1547, with a total trading volume of approximately 3,853,180.35 and notional turnover of ~597,207.14 USDT. The price has shown bearish bias over the past 24 hours, with volatility expanding after a morning consolidation phase and a failed short-term recovery attempt.

Structure and Key Levels

The price broke through a critical support zone at 0.1550 during the 15:30–16:00 ET session, forming a bearish engulfing candlestick near 0.1563. A doji appeared at 0.1555 around 19:00 ET, indicating indecision before a brief rally. Key resistance appears at 0.1563–0.1565, with support likely to be found at 0.1547–0.1550 in the near term. A breakdown below 0.1547 could extend the decline toward 0.1535.

Technical Indicators

The 15-minute RSI dipped into oversold territory at 16:00 ET but failed to reverse the trend, while the MACD remained bearish with a negative crossover. Bollinger Bands expanded after a consolidation period, reflecting increased volatility. A 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart currently sits at ~0.1552, slightly above the 20-period line, suggesting continued bearish momentum in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy hinges on capturing short-term mean reversion within tight Bollinger Band ranges, triggering a long entry on RSI oversold readings (below 30) when price closes within the lower band. Over the past 24 hours, one such signal occurred at 16:00 ET, but the subsequent price action failed to generate a meaningful recovery, indicating potential limitations in the strategy’s effectiveness during periods of strong bearish bias. Further testing during range-bound conditions may be warranted to assess its reliability.