Market Overview: Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

Summary
• LUNA/USDT tested key support near $0.1200, bounced with increasing volume.
• RSI remains in oversold territory, suggesting potential for short-term rebound.
• Volatility expanded in late ET trading, with Bollinger Bands widening after consolidation.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed during the 15:30–15:45 ET session, hinting at recovery.
• On-balance volume shows divergence early in the session, but recent volume confirms upward thrust.

At 12:00 ET − 1, Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at $0.1297, with a high of $0.1333 and a low of $0.1144, closing at $0.1271 by 12:00 ET today. The total volume over the 24-hour window was 114,165,284.73 USDT, with a notional turnover of $14,812,818.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a clear bearish breakdown below key support at $0.1250, with a retest at $0.1200–0.1220 marking a potential short-term base. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 15:30–15:45 ET, suggesting temporary buying interest. A doji at $0.1244 during the 12:15–12:30 ET period highlights indecision at this level.

The 5-minute chart indicates a potential reversal near $0.1250–0.1270, while the daily chart shows the price holding above the 200-period moving average.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 5-minute chart, LUNAUSDT has moved above its 20-period SMA, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. The 50-period SMA is still bearish. On the daily chart, the 50-period EMA at $0.1265 has become a crucial support level. The 100 and 200-period SMAs are aligned lower, indicating bearish bias at higher timeframes.

RSI has remained in oversold territory since the afternoon, hinting at potential bounce. MACD crossed into positive territory at the end of the 15:30–15:45 ET session, reinforcing the possibility of a short-term rebound.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the afternoon and evening, with Bollinger Bands widening after a period of consolidation. Price has spent most of the session within the bands but broke below the lower band during the early morning hours. The recent rebound brought LUNA/USDT back inside the bands, showing a potential shift in volatility dynamics.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the late afternoon and early evening, coinciding with the breakdown below $0.1250 and the rebound from $0.1200. However, volume during the early morning hours was relatively light despite the sharp price decline, suggesting bearish exhaustion. Recent volume aligns with the upward bounce, offering some confirmation of short-term bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 5-minute swing (low at $0.1144, high at $0.1293), the 61.8% level is at $0.1238, which is currently acting as support. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level of the last major move sits at $0.1265, aligning with the 50-period EMA and a potential area of consolidation.

LUNA/USDT appears to be stabilizing in the short term after a deep correction, with momentum indicators and volume showing signs of potential recovery. However, the path forward remains uncertain, with a critical test expected near $0.1265–0.1275. Investors should remain cautious, as a failure to hold above this range could lead to renewed bearish pressure.