Market Overview for Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis

• Price action shows a bearish breakdown from 0.0930 to 0.0885, with a late recovery to close near 0.0924.
• Volume spiked sharply at 20:15–20:30 ET as price collapsed from 0.0892 to 0.0885.
• RSI hit oversold territory (30) before rebounding, signaling potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, suggesting possible volatility expansion ahead.
• Volume has decreased in the final hours, indicating waning near-term momentum.

Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at 0.0921 on October 11, 2025 (12:00 ET - 1), reached a high of 0.0979, touched a low of 0.0858, and closed at 0.0924 as of 12:00 ET on October 12. The pair recorded a total volume of 29,598,679.37 and a notional turnover of 2,732,738.24 USD over the 24-hour window, reflecting heightened volatility amid shifting sentiment.

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish breakdown from key resistance near 0.0930 to support levels at 0.0885–0.0890, where price found a temporary floor. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 20:15 candle, coinciding with a sharp spike in volume, indicating a strong shift in short-term sentiment. Price then attempted a rebound, with a bullish hammer forming near 0.0890, but failed to close above 0.0925. A notable bear trap or bullish reversal may occur if the 0.0925–0.0930 zone holds, though continued pressure below 0.0915 could signal deeper weakness.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show LUNAUSDT trading above its 20-period line but below the 50-period, suggesting mixed momentum. The 50-period moving average (50EMA) has acted as a short-term resistance at 0.0925–0.0928. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages are converging around the 0.0915–0.0925 range, indicating potential consolidation ahead.

MACD lines crossed into bearish territory, with a bearish divergence noted during the 20:00–21:00 ET period as price hit a low but momentum failed to confirm. RSI reached oversold levels (30) at 20:30 ET, followed by a moderate rebound, suggesting a potential bounce. Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, indicating a potential for a breakout in either direction. Price is currently sitting near the mid-channel at 0.0924, with the upper band at 0.0937 and the lower at 0.0908. A break above or below these levels could trigger a sharp move.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.0858 to 0.0930 swing suggest key support at 0.0890 (61.8%) and 0.0885 (78.6%), with resistance at 0.0920 (38.2%) and 0.0925 (50%). These levels may serve as critical decision points for near-term price direction.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential strategy for backtesting could involve using a combination of RSI divergence and Bollinger Band contraction as a pre-breakout signal. For example, entering a long position when price rebounds from oversold RSI (below 30) with a tightening Bollinger Band width and a bullish candlestick pattern, such as a hammer or morning star, could provide a high-probability entry. Stop-loss could be placed below the 0.0915 support, with a take-profit target near the 0.0935 resistance. This approach aligns with the observed late-day rebound and could be tested on historical 15-minute data to assess win/loss ratios and risk-reward profiles.