Market Overview for Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) on 2025-12-29

Summary
• Price dropped 0.91% on a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.1009.
• Volatility expanded as price broke below 0.1004 support.
• Turnover surged during 19:15–22:30 ET, exceeding $210k in 15-minute periods.
• RSI near 30 suggests short-term oversold conditions, though momentum remains bearish.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the decline, indicating increased uncertainty.

Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at 0.1019 (12:00 ET - 1) and closed at 0.0944 by 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.1019 and a low of 0.0943. Total volume for the 24-hour window was approximately 14,162,659.04, with a notional turnover of $1,344,918. A bearish engulfing pattern at 0.1009 confirmed downward pressure, and the price moved below key support at 0.1004. The 50-period moving average on the 5-minute chart acted as a dynamic resistance during the afternoon, and the RSI dipped toward oversold territory, though without a clear reversal signal.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish engulfing candle around 0.1009, confirming a short-term breakdown. A doji appeared at 0.0991 during the early morning, signaling indecision. A larger bearish candle on the 15-minute chart during the 22:30–23:00 ET window reinforced the downward momentum. Key support levels appear near 0.0985 and 0.0960, with resistance at 0.1004 and 0.1019.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 5-minute chart remained bearishly aligned, with price consistently below both. Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased during the afternoon and evening, with price settling near the lower band by 10:00 PM ET. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits slightly above the 200-period MA, suggesting a mixed intermediate outlook.

Momentum and Volatility

Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped to 30 during the late afternoon, indicating oversold conditions but without a reversal signal. MACD remained bearish, with the histogram widening during the selloff. Volume surged during the 19:15–22:30 ET window, coinciding with the sharp decline from 0.1006 to 0.0987. The price-to-volume profile remained aligned, with no major divergences.

Volume and Turnover

Notional turnover spiked above $210k during the 19:15–22:30 ET period, indicating increased selling pressure. The largest 15-minute candle by volume occurred at 22:30 ET (volume: 1.89M), closing at 0.0987. Despite the decline, volume remained in line with price action, showing no signs of divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 0.1019 high to the 0.0943 low indicate potential support at 61.8% (~0.0971) and 38.2% (~0.0988). Price briefly bounced near 0.0988 but failed to hold, suggesting the 61.8% level could be next. On the daily chart, a key 61.8% retracement from recent highs sits near 0.0960.

In the next 24 hours, a test of 0.0960 support may trigger further consolidation or a rebound. Traders should remain cautious as volatility remains elevated, and a break below 0.0943 could accelerate the decline.